Friday, September 30, 2011

NFL Week 4 Fantasy Football Pick'em and Survival Picks

Hey GHL fans. Back with another week of pick'em.

I did a number on last week's messy results and came out on top at 11-5, tying with Jordan for the lead through three weeks. My Girlfriend's Little Sister kept her record split even.

In Nanny Nanny Boo-Boo news, Jordan is out of the Survival game after just three weeks. What did we learn... Betting against the Seahawks is usually a good move, but better on the Cardinals is a little iffy. For me Week 4 is with another team that should easily seal their victory. At about Week 5, when the majority of the competition is out, then we will start making our picks a little bolder. And it will be easier, because we will have a better sense for how the teams play. Ta-da!

A couple upsets on my list, for the most part, it seems pretty straight-forward though.

I see the Cowboys pulling through again at home against a solid Lions team. But the Lions haven't really faced anyone that good. They soundly beat the Kansas City High School Chiefs, struggled against Tampa, and had to go to overtime with the 0-3 Vikings.

I will also be taking Bucs losing to the Colts. I'm not sure why. Maybe I'm just feeling bold. I'm just not impressed by Tampa Bay this year. And it's about time for the Colts to do some work.

MGLS picks will be up shortly. If you've got an upset special that you like. Post it!
Record (LW) (Total):(9-7)(29-19)(11-5)(29-19)(8-8)(24-24)
Bills @ BengalsBillsBillsBengals
Panthers @ BearsPanthersBearsPanthers
Titans @ BrownsBrownsBrownsBrowns
Lions @ CowboysLionsCowboysCowboys
Vikings @ ChiefsVikingsVikingsChiefs
Redskins @ RamsRedskinsRamsRedskins
Saints @ JaguarsSaintsSaintsJaguars
49ers @ EaglesEaglesEagles49ers
Steelers @ TexansSteelersTexansSteelers
Falcons @ SeahawksFalconsFalconsFalcons
Giants @ CardinalsGiantsGiantsGiants
Broncos @ PackersPackersPackersBroncos
Patriots @ RaidersPatriotsPatriotsPatriots
Dolphins @ ChargersChargersChargersChargers
Jets @ RavensJetsRavensJets
Colts @ BuccaneersBucsColtsBucs

Survival Pick EliminatedSaintsEliminated

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Your Turn. Help a Fellow Reader Out!

Got this question in the comments today from Shad0ws. Thought it would be fun to post it up here and get some responses from my readers. It's an interesting situation.

Tell me what you all think!
"I have a question on a trade in my league, have been doing well this season but want an outside opinion on this one.

10 Teams, .5 PPR, and I was offered this by the 3rd place team

(me) Run DMC + Wes Welker for (him) AP + Megatron

My team is pretty stacked atm. I'm 3-0 averaging 150 points/week, which is 100 more than the other 3-0, and I just got a deal done for Andre Johnson, so if this went through I would have AP and Mendy at RB, Andre and Calvin at WR, and Miles Austin at flex when he returns. WW and DMC are the top scoring position players this year so far, but I don't know if they can keep it up, welker cuz of other option in NE and DMC cuz of injury. Megatron and AP are 2 of the most consistently high performing players in the league. Thoughts?
I could also possibly do DMC + Austin, but I think I like Austin better than Welker long term this season."

So there it is. Darren McFadden and Wes Welker for Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson. What do you say?

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Fantasy Football Week 4 Position Rankings

Alright, so, I'm a bit early on this, but we'll be OK. I'm nervous to say that this week seems pretty straight up. We have gotten a feel for most of the players and defenses, so there is a bit more confidence.

You can see in the Running Back rankings that there is a very sharp drop in talent toward the middle, anyone beyond that point really isn't ideal to have as a starter. But on the Wide Reciever side, there is talent all over the place. Lots of gambles in the later part of the list, but each of them could break.

It will prove to be another damn crazy year, but we are seeing a blatant shift to the passing game, even for teams that were once very run-heavy like the Steelers and Ravens.

Feel free to ask any questions here, or point out if I left someone off the list that you think should have made it.

So yeah, here we go...

Monday, September 26, 2011

Humbling Losses: You and I Can Overcome This - Part 2

Piggy backing on my friend and lesser foe's post . I, unlike him, managed to win in all leagues this week, though not in stunning fashion. The wins are cute, as they have secured the #1 spot for me in all leagues, but they really don't matter. This is Week 3, for chrissake.

If you're winning your leagues at this point-- good. Well done. Great. Whoopty doo. You're still probably one or two devestating injuries away from taking advantage of the waiver wire like it was Lorraine McFly. Or your hot pocket players could start stinking like, well, hot pockets.

Humbling Losses: You and I Can Overcome This

I will come out and say it. This week I suffered the biggest loss of my fantasy football career. But let this post be a lesson to you. That you can rise from an abysmal week. One loss, no matter the margin, is no reason to find your season as a total loss. It is still early in this game. Just like the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2 or the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1, every team, even fantasy, has an off week.
I went into Week 3 in my league projected by ESPN to win by 10 points. I was solid with my starters and thought that I would breeze through another week. Let’s take a look at how things turned out:
QB: Philip Rivers, 6 fantasy points
RB: DeAngelo Williams, 2 fantasy points
RB: Montario Hardesty, 7 fantasy points
RB/WR: Steve Smith, 1 fantasy point
WR: Hakeem Nicks, 2 fantasy points
WR: AJ Green, 2 fantasy points
WR/TE: Kenny Britt, -1 fantasy point
TE: Evan Moore, 1 fantasy point
 DEF: Tennessee Titans, 8 fantasy points
K: Mason Crosby, 9 fantasy points

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Week 3: Peyton Hillis, Arian Foster out

To all of you who are not currently watching ESPN... Cleveland Browns' RB Peyton Hillis is out.

Arian Foster out.
Miles Austin out.
Antonio Gates out.

UPDATE: Jesus Christ IN.

Saturday, September 24, 2011

2011 Week 3 Advice Time

Hey everybody.

I am back from my trip. Thanks to everyone for being so patient with me.

Welcome to another week of advice time. If you have any trade, lineup, injury, pick'em, or sleeper questions now is your time to ask them.

It was a little hard keeping organized, so if you asked a question this week and have not received an answer, please repost it in the comments of this article.

Thanks everyone and good luck tomorrow!

Friday, September 23, 2011

NFL Week 3 Pick'em Predictions and Survival Football

Picked up in Week 2. We're rocking it now.

Jordan and I are still rocking in Survival using out play the good ones first strategy. Still standing in week three. Unlike nearly 40% of the people who started playing.

Below are the picks for Jordan and Andrew. My Girlfriend's Little Sister's will be up shortly. She's still in school right now though. 

Let's get it to it.

Record (LW) (Total):(12-4)(20-12)(10-6)(18-14)(9-7)(16-16)
Patriots @ BillsPatriotsPatriotsPatriots
49ers @ BengalsBengals49ersBengals
Dolphins @ BrownsBrownsBrownsBrowns
Broncos @ TitansTitansTitansBroncos
Lions @ VikingsLionsLionsLions
Texans @ SaintsTexansSaintsTexans
Giants @ EaglesEaglesEaglesGiants
Jaguars @ PanthersPanthersPanthersPanthers
Chiefs @ ChargersChargersChargersChiefs
Jets @ RaidersJetsJetsJets
Ravens @ RamsRavensRavensRams
Falcons @ BucsFalconsFalconsFalcons
Packers @ BearsPackersPackersPackers
Cardinals @ SeahawksCardinalsCardinalsSeahawks
Steelers @ ColtsSteelersSteelersSteelers
Redskins @ CowboysCowboysCowboysCowboys

Survival Pick CardinalsSteelersPatriots

Thursday, September 22, 2011

2011 Week 3 Fantasy Football Position Rankings

Alright guys,
It's my last day out of town, so you can expect the Advice time a little bit late this week, probably Friday night or Saturday. Pick'em predictions and Survival will also be up around that time.
Sorry for any inconvenience this week. Let's get to the rankings.
Week 3 Quarterback Rankings
1.     Tom Brady
2.     Philip Rivers
3.     Matthew Stafford
4.     Aaron Rodgers
5.     Michael Vick
6.     Drew Brees
7.     Ryan Fitzpatrick
8.     Matt Schaub
9.     Ben Roethlisberger
10. Tony Romo
11. Cam Newton
12. Matt Ryan
13. Kevin Kolb
14. Jay Cutler
15. Josh Freeman
16. Joe Flacco
17. Rex Grossman
18. Sam Bradford
19. Eli Manning
20. Colt McCoy
21. Blaine Gabbert
22. Jason Campbell
23. Matt Hasselbeck
24. Chad Henne
25. Mark Sanchez

Week 3 Running Back Rankings
1.     Adrian Peterson
2.     Rashard Mendenhall
3.     Ray Rice
4.     Michael Turner
5.     Maurice Jones-Drew
6.     LeSean McCoy
7.     Matt Forte
8.     Chris Jonson
9.     Darren McFadden
10. Frank Gore
11. Beanie Wells
12. Ben Tate
13. Fred Jackson
14. LeGarrette Blount
15. Peyton Hillis
16. Jahvid Best
17. Ryan Mathews
18. James Starks
19. Mike Tolbert
20. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
21. Ahmad Bradshaw
22. Steven Jackson
23. Felix Jones
24. Cedric Benson
25. Tim Hightower
26. Willis McGahee
27. Mark Ingram
28. DeAngelo Williams
29. Shonn Greene
30. Dexter McCluster
31. Daniel Thomas
32. Brandon Jacobs
33. Pierre Thomas
34. Joseph Addai
35. Darren Sproles
36. Ryan Grant
37. Roy Helu
38. Danny Woodhead
39. Marshawn Lynch
40. Reggie Bush
41. Thomas Jones
42. LaDainian Tomlinson
43. Jonathan Stewart
44. C.J. Spiller
45. Knowshon Moreno
46. DeMarco Murray
47. Montario Hardesty
48. Delone Carter
49. Cadillac Williams
50. Montario Hardesty

Week 3 Wide Receiver Rankings
1.     Larry Fitzgerald
2.     Andre Johnson
3.     Calvin Johnson
4.     Vincent Jackson
5.     Greg Jennings
6.     Roddy White
7.     Mike Wallace
8.     Dez Bryant
9.     Kenny Britt
10. DeSean Jackson
11. Steve Smith
12. Brandon Marshall
13. Santana Moss
14. Wes Welker
15. Steve Johnson
16. Hakeem Nicks
17. Santonio Holmes
18. Jeremy Maclin
19. Anquan Boldin
20. Reggie Wayne
21. Mike Williams
22. Percy Harvin
23. A.J. Green
24. Deion Branch
25. Brandon Lloyd
26. Dwayne Bowe
27. Jordy Nelson
28. Mike Thomas
29. Devery Henderson
30. Robert Meachem
31. Nate Burleson
32. Plaxico Burress
33. Mario Manningham
34. Eric Decker
35. Julio Jones
36. Johnny Knox
37. Malcom Floyd
38. David Nelson
39. Mike Sims-Walker
40. Lance Moore
41. Chad Ochocinco
42. Mohamed Massaquoi
43. Dexter McCluster
44. Nate Washington
45. Jabar Gaffney
46. Kevin Ogletree
47. Mike Williams (SEA)
48. Denarius Moore
49. Davone Bess
50. Danario Alexander

Week 3 Tight End Rankings
1.     Jason Witten
2.     Antonio Gates
3.     Jermichael Finley
4.     Rob Gronkowski
5.     Jemmy Graham
6.     Vernon Davis
7.     Dustin Keller
8.     Owen Daniels
9.     Tony Gonzalez
10. Fred Davis
11. Dallas Clark
12. Scott Chandler
13. Evan Moore
14. Greg Olsen
15. Tony Scheffler
16. Marcedes Lewis
17. Ed Dickson
18. Jermaine Gresham
19. Jared Cook
20. Jeremy Shockey

Week 3 Kicker Rankings
1.     Neil Rackers
2.     John Kasay
3.     Mason Crosby
4.     Stephen Gostkowski
5.     Alex Henery
6.     Josh Brown
7.     Billy Cundiff
8.     Rian Lindell
9.     Nick Folk
10. Sebastian Janikowski
11. Jason Hanson
12. Robbie Gould
13. David Akers
14. Jay Feely
15. Matt Bryant
16. Rob Bironas
17. Shaun Suisham
18. Dan Bailey
19. Dan Carpenter
20. Olindo Mare

Week 3 Defense Rankings
1.     Pittsburgh Steelers
2.     San Diego Chargers
3.     New York Jets
4.     Detroit Lions
5.     Philadelphia Eagles
6.     Baltimore Ravens
7.     Arizona Cardinals
8.     Green Bay Packers
9.     Tennesee Titans
10. New Orleans Saints
11. Chicago Bears
12. Atlanta Falcons
13. San Francisco 49ers
14. Carolina Panthers
15. Cincinnati Bengals
16. Oakland Raiders
17. Dallas Cowboys
18. Cleveland Browns
19. Washington Redskins
20. St. Louis Rams

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Injury Roulette or: How I Stole Miles Austin and Marques Colston

The injury bug is a bitch. A toothy, machete (to capitalize on a phrase by Mr. Austin) wielding bitch. To quote Andre 3000’s take on injuries: Bitch, stupid ass bitch / Old punk ass bitch, old dumb ass bitch / A bitch is a bitch, just a bitch. That’s what injuries are. Just ask Jamaal Charles, the Kansas City Chiefs, all of KC’s fans, and all those jokers that grabbed Charles in the first round.

But a bitch can be a sweet lay too. Sometimes, it’s so good, you just have to suck it up and deal with it.

And that’s where you come in. You deal with the bitch because the sex is so damn good. And nothing, nothing, NOTHING is closer to sex in fantasy football than stealing a great player.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Week 2 Wrapup

Hey everyone.

Been at a conference since Sunday a.m. so I haven't been able to get to the sites.

I did want to provide a bit of a wrap up today, and ensure everyone that Week 3's Position Rankings and Advice time will be up this week for you to ask any questions you may have.

I may be slow getting the response to you, but rest assured that I guarantee a reply to your question by kickoff next Sunday.

I won the matchup in two of my leagues. Jordan and I are currently tied for first place in our league 2-0-0. DeSean Jackson let me down and caused me to lose my game in the expert league. It hurt a little bit after being so dominant last week, but I'm sure I can come back. I'm still the highest scoring team in the league.

Will be more analysis later this week, I just wanted to get this update in. In the comments please let me know how your week went. Who was great for you and who disappointed? How did you SDS and Kicker strategy ideas work out? Did you win or lose?

Let me know this. I've also got a bit of a poll question for you guys. I want your opinion... In 2011, will Cam Newton and Steve Smith keep this up? Will each of them finish in the top 10 fantasy football producers at their position? Top 5? Let me know what you think!

Thanks everybody. Hope you all had a great week.

Saturday, September 17, 2011

Week 2 - Last Chance

Alright, I've got the Sleeper plays up and all of my Week 2 position rankings for you.

I will be on a plane tomorrow at kickoff, so will not be able to answer any questions. I will be back and posting all week long. Just can't do anything on Sunday. So if you have a question, get it in now.

There is a chance that I will be able to use Twitter from my phone to answer questions, so if you have any questions from here on out. Tweet them to me @godhateslosers.

Take care and good luck this week to everyone!

Fantasy Football Strategy: How to Select Your Kicker

Nobody is perfect. But, I mean, let’s face it, I’m pretty goddamn close. However a few comments have found a flaw from last week and that would be my Kicker rankings. In fact, for nearly every single fantasy football blog or advice site you go to, you will see that this is the weak point. I don’t want to say that it is impossible, but really, there is so much inconsistency that luck plays about 90% of the role.
Why is it so damn hard to predict? In 2010, nine kickers averaged 8+ fantasy points per game. Only one player on that list also had 8+ points in 2009, David Akers. Also the difference between the fifth highest scoring kicker from 2010 and the fifteenth highest scorer was a mere 1 fantasy point per game. Just one.
But, this is an advice site. So I will advise. Though there has never been, and likely never will be an accurate system for picking kicker performance, I’ve been trying to find any sort of formula to accurately predict kickers. Below are a few strategies that might be worth your while. Best of luck to you.

Friday, September 16, 2011

NFL Week 2 Pick'em Predictions and Surival Football

Alright. I will admit. It was a less than stellar Week 1. But we have all the kinks worked out. Guaranteed.

I also want to points out the Survival Picks. Hopefully you read the article and went with a guarantee like Jordan and I did and made it into Week 2. According to the Survival League on ESPN, 19.5% of voters went for the Browns and 15.6% went for the Chiefs. With those two picks, over one third of the Survival players are already out. I will allow you to clap.

Onto a bit of analysis for this week's picks. Jordan and I are pretty similar. We took different stands on a couple of the toss up games, so I'm excited to check those out. My Girlfriend's Little Sister seems to have gone with the which mascot do I think is coolest strategy, and wound up bandwagoning with mostly underdogs this week. So, technically, you heard it here first.

Let's get it to it.

Seahawks @ SteelersSteelersSteelersSteelers
Raiders @ BillsBillsBillsBills
Cardinals @ RedskinsRedskinsRedskinsCardinals
Bucs @ VikingsBucsBucsVikings
Jaguars @ JetsJetsJetsJaguars
Bears @ SaintsSaintsSaintsBears
Packers @ PanthersPackersPackersPanthers
Ravens @ TitansRavensRavensTitans
Chiefs @ LionsLionsLionsChiefs
Browns @ ColtsBrownsColtsBrowns
Cowboys @ 49ersCowboysCowboysCowboys
Bengals @ BroncosBengalsBroncosBroncos
Chargers @ PatriotsPatriotsChargersPatriots
Texans @ DolphinsTexansTexansDolphins
Eagles @ FalconsEaglesEaglesFalcons
Rams @ GiantsRamsRamsGiants

Survival Pick SteelersPackersPanthers

Thursday, September 15, 2011

2011 NFL Week 2 Start'em Sit'em

I’m a firm believer in starting your elite players every week. A lot of people questioned Miles Austin in Week 1, but as most elite players do, Austin found a way to put up good numbers for your fantasy football team. But injuries (Steven Jackson, Danny Amendola, Hakeem Nicks, etc), and obvious poor performances (Knowshon Moreno, Chad Ochocinco) call for some creative roster adjustments.
Here are a few sleepers that will help boost your team out of any Week 1 rut that you experienced. And a list of players that you might want to consider ‘resting’ in Week 2.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

2011 Week 2 Fantasy Football Position Rankings

It is time again for the Weekly Position Rankings. We are going to be predicting the top performers at each position for Week 2 of the NFL. We are dealing with a lot more injuries than we were in week one. Lots of guys listed as questionable, so keep an eye on them. (Hakeem Nicks, Arian Foster, Dez Bryant, etc.) Make those adjustments when necessary
As always, if I left someone off that you think should be on there, please let me know. I will be posting an advice time article tomorrow, but feel free to start posting you line-up questions here.
Away we go!

Monday, September 12, 2011

2011 Fantasy Football Week 1 Wrap-Up

So, it probably goes without saying that I am heartbroken. Devastating loss for my Cowboys. Which is another positive about fantasy football, because I successfully wrapped up all of my game this week. And by some stroke of luck I am currently the highest scorer in the Expert League by over 70 points, thanks largely in part to Drew Brees, Mike Tolbert, Kenny Britt and Steve Smith.
Fantasy Weekly Wrap-Ups are going to be our version of Monday Morning Quarterbacking looking at fantasy implications of some of the top performers, spouting off random things that amused us our made us think. If you’ve got something you want to share, add it to the comments. Advice time and rankings will be coming up mid-week, so please hold off on those, we’ve got plenty of time.

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Week 1 Twitter

I am currently on Twitter answering your last minute questions


Ask anything about your lineup

Week 1 Injury Updates

Seahawks' Syndey Rice out. Obomanu and Mike Williams starting for Seahawks. Neither are great plays, but if you are hurting, then they might be worth a start.

Chicago's Marion Barber out. If this affects your starting lineup, then you have bigger problems.

Giants' Justin Tuck looks positive to play. Hurts all Redskins starters even more.

Dallas Cowboys' Terrance Newman out. Jenkins questionable. With both starting Cowboys cornerback either hurt or missing, stock for Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes rise.

Arian Foster likely out. I took him out of my starting lineup. Ward and Tate will likely split carries, so it is hard to be confident about one or the other. Indy does have a poor run defense, so both could get starts for you. Just do it with caution.

Saturday, September 10, 2011

Expert League Draft Results

Earlier this month I posted the first round results of the Expert league that I am in with some other fantasy football sites and writers. I was the final pick in this 12-team draft, which was not a very good spot when you are surrounded by people who really know what they are doing.

Overall, I think I did a decent job. Very week at RB, and since the draft, 2 of my guys have been injured. Let me know what you think.

We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 1 RB/WR, 2 WR, 1 WR/TE, 1 TE, 1 DEF, 1 ST
ST includes the kicker and return yardage of the team you choose.

Rd 1) Calvin Johnson
2) Rashard Mendenhall
3) DeSean Jackson
4) Drew Brees
5) Kenny Britt
6) Marques Colston* (Injured)
7) Mike Tolbert
8) Joseph Addai
9) Johnny Knox
10) Zach Miller
11) LaDainian Tomlinson
12) Joe Flacco
13) Detroit Lions Defense
14) Rashard Jennings (Currently a waiver to drop him and add Isaac Redman)
15) Steve Breaston
16) Kevin Boss (Currently a waiver to drop him and add Devery Henderson)
17) Houston Texans Special Teams
18) Jerome Simpson

So there we are. Not terrible, not great.

Thursday, September 8, 2011

NFL Week 1 Pick'em Predictions and Surival Football

Alright, welcome to our Week 1 Pick'em Predictions.

This year we are going to have a new addition to this post. We will also be predicting Survival winners. The rules for us are the same. We can only pick each NFL team one time.

For those of you that are new to GodHatesLosers, you will notice that Jordan and I are both making predictions. MGLS stands for My Girlfriend's Little Sister. She is 11. She enjoys drawing, being in the 6th grade, and dancing to "Michael Jackson: The Experience" video game on the Wii. Her picks are much like a coin toss, except more adorable.

Here we go:

Saints @ PackersSaintsSaintsPackers
Steelers @ RavensSteelersRavensRavens
Bengals @ BrownsBrownsBrownsBrowns
Colts @ TexansTexansTexansTexans
Titans @ JaguarsTitansTitansTitans
Falcons @ BearsFalconsFalconsFalcons
Bills @ ChiefsChiefsChiefsChiefs
Eagles @ RamsEaglesEaglesRams
Lions @ BuccaneersLionsLionsLions
Seahawks @ 49ers49ers49ersSeahawks
Giants @ RedskinsRedskinsGiantsRedskins
Vikings @ ChargersChargersChargersVikings
Panthers @ CardinalsCardinalsCardinalsPanthers
Cowboys @ JetsCowboysCowboysCowboys
Patriots @ DolphinsPatriotsPatriotsPatriots
Raiders @ BroncosBroncosBroncosRaiders
Survival Pick PatriotsPatriotsSeahawks

Survival League Strategy: Winning These Fantasy Football Pools

Survival football is a style of fantasy (or gambling, if you will) similar to pick’em. It’s a simple premise: You pick the winner of one game per week. The catch is that once you select a team, you cannot select them for the rest of the season.* If you choose incorrectly, you are eliminated. At the end of the year, the person in the pool who made it the furthest into the season wins.
*In some survival leagues, if your team wins, you are allowed to play them the next week as well. But for this site, we are going to stick to the first set of rules
My first few years playing this, I had no strategy at all. “How hard could this be?” I foolishly asked myself. Pretty damn hard is the answer. Anyone else get eliminated last year during Week 1 because you picked the Chargers? That’s right, about half of you.
There seem to be two strategies that are used in Survival Leagues:
1)      Save the easy picks for later. A majority of the people in your pool are probably going to save the simple guys the middle of the season (assuming they make it that far). Their strategy is to not vote for the Eagles, Patriots, Packers, Saints, Steelers, etc. in the beginning of the season, thinking that if they make it out of the first 4-5 weeks, then they can coast to the finish line on their sure-things.
2)      Pick the best. Each week. No matter what. This strategy is simple. Look at the teams, and find which one appears the most obvious. If you gamble in Week 1, you have less of a chance of making it out of Week 1. If you so with a sure-thing, then you have a better chance to progress further.
I am against the first strategy. It makes little sense to me, personally. The entire point of the game is to make it to the next week. So, if you don’t make the smart pick in Week 1, the chances of you getting past that week are greatly decreased. I would much rather pick the Patriots beating the Dolphins in Week 1, then going out on a limb and picking, say, the 49ers over the Seahawks.
This game is all about endurance. If every member of your pool goes with the first strategy, they will drop like flies before even seeing Week 5. Meaning that if you employ the second strategy and play it safe in the early rounds, you win.
So go with the obvious ones early. Stay in as long as you can. When there are fewer competitors in the pool, then you can start taking your gambles. It’s a lot easier to gamble on a team in the middle weeks when you have been able to watch them all season and can predict the outcomes more easily.
Now, how do you go about picking a sure-thing? There are a couple factors here. First is pretty basic, you look at their record. This is where you are going to find the teams that do well every year. By seeing who they play well against and how often they win games, you can be pretty confident when they go up against a ‘less than perfect’ team.
Second is home-field advantage. It definitely matters. The Kansas City Chiefs are by no means one of the obvious teams to pick, but their record in 2010 was 7-1 at home. I’d be much more confident picking them in a home game in the middle of the year, knowing that they perform better there, than picking them at the beginning of the year so I could save the bigger names for later down the road.
Number three, look at the loser. It’s an awkward fact, but I feel that it is way easier to pick which team will definitely lose the game than it is to pick the team that will definitely win. I’m sure there is a psychological term for it or something. But think about it, there seem to be fewer loopholes and it is a lot easier to be confident saying the Redskins will definitely lose to the Giants, than saying the Giants will definitely beat the Redskins. So make a point to analyze the other team, if you can confidently say that they are going to lose, then pull the trigger.
Hope this strategy clears some things up for all of those playing in Survival Leagues. If you are not already signed up for one, they are a fun little game that will take about two minutes of your life, so go on your favorite fantasy football host and sign up!
And of course, you can expect to hear from GHL. When we post our Pick’em predictions, we will also add our guarantee of the week that we’ll be using in our own Survival Pool Picks.

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Week 1 Fantasy Football Position Rankings

Here we are. The long awaited Player Rankings for Week 1. This is a weekly post where we will look at every matchup in the league and list the players how we think they will perform.

A few little notes for you:
  • This isn't exactly standard and isn't exactly PPR. Consider it almost a .5 PPR ranking. 
  • Just because these are my rankings, they may not reflect the advice that I give you one-on-one. Sometimes the gut has to outweigh the statistics.
  • Kicker is borderline impossible to predict. My picks are based a lot on strength of offense. Its all about how many times a team will make the red zone.
  • The Defense rankings you see here are what I will be using for Shuffling Defense Strategy. There are a handful of teams in the top 10 that are likely available in your waivers. Snatch them up unless the team you already own is higher.
  • If I happened to skip any player that seems he should obviously be on the list, please bring it to my attention. I likely just forgot him.
  • Feel free to use this post as an Advice post. If you have any roster questions, fire away.
  • IDP rankings are very similar week in and week out. Basically, if the guy is performing well, play him. If he is not, drop him. I'm not in the game of predicting tackles.


“Iupati like it’s Your Birthday” League Fantasy Football Draft Results

UPDATED! I accidentally got Jordan's team entirely wrong. Phew. I fixed it though. Its much more embarrasing for him now.

Finished this draft about a week ago and wanted to let everyone know how it turned out. If you’ve been reading through the posts, this is the draft where Jordan drunkenly drafted three… THREE… tight ends. You would think that he take the advice of his own fantasy website, but no.
Below are the results for my team, Jordan’s team, and Gurgs’s team. I personally think that Gurgs had the best draft in the league. Let me know what you think in the comments.
My Team- Tootsie Sproles (Second overall pick)
QB- Philip Rivers
RB- DeAngelo Williams
RB- Beanie Wells
RB/WR- Kenny Britt
WR- Hakeem Nicks
WR- Mike Williams
WR/TE- Malcolm Floyd
TE- Jared Cook
DEF- Atlanta
K- Mason Crosby

Bench spots- Arian Foster, AJ Green, Zach Miller, Steve Smith (CAR), Antonio Brown, DeMarco Murray, Steve Breaston

Jordan’s Team-Sweet, Sweet Cundifflingus (10th overall pick)

QB- Tony Romo
RB- LaGarrette Blount
RB- Tim Hightower
RB/WR- Wes Welker
WR- Andre Johnson
WR- Roddy White
WR/TE- Jimmy Graham
TE- Jason Witten
DEF- New England
K- David Akers
Bench spots- Jonathan Stewart, Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Jacobs, Lance Moore, Hines Ward, I. Redman, Marion Barber

Gurgs’s Team- Orton Hears a Who (4th overall pick)

QB- Matthew Stafford
RB- Ray Rice
RB- Frank Gore
WR/RB- Jahvid Best
WR- Vincent Jackson
WR- Miles Austin
WR/TE- Austin Collie
TE- Jermichael Finley
DEF- San Diego
K- Sebastian Janikowski

Bench spots- Mark Ingram, Mike Tolbert, Mike Thomas, Michael Bush, Jerome Harrison, Jerome Simpson, Chris Cooley

So, those are the teams. The draft was before Foster’s injury and before CJ ended his holdout, so I’m left without my first pick for week 1. As I said, I believe that Gurgs had the best draft in the league, but her team is one of the most fragile fantasy teams I’ve ever seen put together in my life. Stafford, Gore, Best, Jackson, Collie, Finley all missed time last year and Austin is nursing a hamstring right now.

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

NFL Predictions: Defensive Rookie of the Year

As many of you guessed, here is my list of candidates for the Defensive Rookie of the Year. There is a huge crop of talented defensive rookies, so there are plenty of guys who will be in the running that are not listed. If you've got a better pick than mine, let me know in the comments who gets your prediction.

I'm working on the position rankings for week one right now and will be posting my final fantasy football rosters for two leagues tomorrow! Lots to look forward to as we get ready for Week 1!

Monday, September 5, 2011

NFL Predictions: Who will be 2011 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?

Decided to do a handful of predictions for the beginning of the week while NFL teams are settling in for the first game of the season. Let me know who you think will land 2011 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in the comments below. 
Remember that the post before this one was "Advice Time" for week one, so keep posting any questions there. Thanks a lot and Enjoy.

Sunday, September 4, 2011

Fantasy Football Week 1 Advice Time

I am very excited to announce the first ever Advice Time of the 2011 NFL Season.

If you've got questions about lineups or trades, or still even have a few draft questions to get to, now is the time to post them.

And remember, make sure that you add us on Twitter. One hour before kickoff, every Sunday, I will be answering questions LIVE on Twitter. Make sure you add @godhateslosers and direct any questions to us.

Thursday, September 1, 2011

Fantasy Football Deep Sleepers: Andre Roberts and Four More to Watch For

I love me a deep league. You give me 15 friends and a five-hour, 18-man roster draft and I am smitten. The longer you play fantasy football, the more you yearn to deviate from the Standard Leagues where you started playing. You experiment in points per reception (PPR) leagues, you try an auction draft, even venture into the realm of the individual defensive player (IDP). But for my money, there is nothing more satisfying, or challenging, than a deep league.
You get a chance to flex your NFL knowledge and show off to your friends that your powers of prediction are the stuff of legend. You take notes during preseason games. And you find the gems, the unsung heroes of fantasy. There is nothing like it. So, enjoy this list of deep sleepers, the guys that don't make the cut in a standard draft, the men with average draft positions of 200 and beyond. Because you go past the starters. You're a warrior.