Fantasy Football Strategy: How to Select Your Kicker

Nobody is perfect. But, I mean, let’s face it, I’m pretty goddamn close. However a few comments have found a flaw from last week and that would be my Kicker rankings. In fact, for nearly every single fantasy football blog or advice site you go to, you will see that this is the weak point. I don’t want to say that it is impossible, but really, there is so much inconsistency that luck plays about 90% of the role.

Why is it so damn hard to predict? In 2010, nine kickers averaged 8+ fantasy points per game. Only one player on that list also had 8+ points in 2009, David Akers. Also the difference between the fifth highest scoring kicker from 2010 and the fifteenth highest scorer was a mere 1 fantasy point per game. Just one.

But, this is an advice site. So I will advise. Though there has never been, and likely never will be an accurate system for picking kicker performance, I’ve been trying to find any sort of formula to accurately predict kickers. Below are a few strategies that might be worth your while. Best of luck to you.

Expert League Draft Results

Earlier this month I posted the first round results of the Expert league that I am in with some other fantasy football sites and writers. I was the final pick in this 12-team draft, which was not a very good spot when you are surrounded by people who really know what they are doing.

Overall, I think I did a decent job. Very week at RB, and since the draft, 2 of my guys have been injured. Let me know what you think.

We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 1 RB/WR, 2 WR, 1 WR/TE, 1 TE, 1 DEF, 1 ST
ST includes the kicker and return yardage of the team you choose.

Rd 1) Calvin Johnson
2) Rashard Mendenhall
3) DeSean Jackson
4) Drew Brees
5) Kenny Britt
6) Marques Colston* (Injured)
7) Mike Tolbert
8) Joseph Addai
9) Johnny Knox
10) Zach Miller
11) LaDainian Tomlinson
12) Joe Flacco
13) Detroit Lions Defense
14) Rashard Jennings (Currently a waiver to drop him and add Isaac Redman)
15) Steve Breaston
16) Kevin Boss (Currently a waiver to drop him and add Devery Henderson)
17) Houston Texans Special Teams
18) Jerome Simpson

So there we are. Not terrible, not great.

Fantasy Football Deep Sleepers: Andre Roberts and Four More to Watch For

I love me a deep league. You give me 15 friends and a five-hour, 18-man roster draft and I am smitten. The longer you play fantasy football, the more you yearn to deviate from the Standard Leagues where you started playing. You experiment in points per reception (PPR) leagues, you try an auction draft, even venture into the realm of the individual defensive player (IDP). But for my money, there is nothing more satisfying, or challenging, than a deep league.

You get a chance to flex your NFL knowledge and show off to your friends that your powers of prediction are the stuff of legend. You take notes during preseason games. And you find the gems, the unsung heroes of fantasy. There is nothing like it. So, enjoy this list of deep sleepers, the guys that don't make the cut in a standard draft, the men with average draft positions of 200 and beyond. Because you go past the starters. You're a warrior.

Draft Time: Fantasy Site Battle

So I’m doing this awesome thing this year in the hopes of proving just how awesome I really am. I’m getting together with some fellow fantasy football gurus and playing in a 12 man league. These are all guys who work on radio shows, or write other blogs and somehow contribute to the fantasy football community. And I’m going to do everything in my power to prove the GHL is the greatest fantasy site on the internet.

The rules are a little funky, but for sanity’s sake, let’s just say that it is basically a PPR league.

We just finished the first round of the draft, so let’s take a look at the picks and break them down a bit. Feel free to analyze the picks yourself in the comments below and let me know what you think was a good move and what could be considered tragic.

How to Win Fantasy Football: Shuffling Defense Strategy

I’d say we’re about half way through fantasy football draft season. A lot of the questions that I have been getting on this site and on Twitter (@godhateslosers)  are about drafting a defense.

The most popular strategy for this is much like the strategy for any other position: Get the best defense available. You will see teams going out and grabbing a defense as early as round 8. If that is what they feel they must do to own the Jets or Packers or Bears or whoever, more power to them.

I have a different strategy though. This was one of my most popular posts last season and it could hold the key to catapulting you into first place. I know that I’m not the first person to think of doing this, but I like to think that I have validated it. I have been using this for years and am quite proud of it. I’m a pioneer if you will, a visionary. Prepare yourself for the most groundbreaking idea to hit fantasy football since the auction draft.

The 2011 Fantasy Football season will be my fourth year employing the system I like to call Shuffling Defensive Strategy. I’m in five leagues, this is mostly due to my lack of a social life and inability to fall asleep before 3 a.m. I’ve never been much into video games, so I instead opt to spend my time gambling on how successfully large men will perform their jobs one week at a time. My first time using it was a little less than successful, but after a significant amount of time and research, it became a strategy that I use in every one of my leagues.

The basic idea is a simple one:

1)      You are an owner in a 10-team league. Therefore, not including yourself, there are 9 starting defenses.

2)     A handful of inexperienced owners will have more than one defense, because they are morons, so, let’s say that there are 12 NFL team defenses off the board. Leaving 20 in free agency on the waivers.

3)     Every single year, there are 10-15 NFL teams with offenses that are suspect at best.

4)     So, it is safe to conclude that an unowned, free agent defense will be playing against an aforementioned NFL team with a questionable offense.

The conventional method of owning a defense is to get one in the draft. And play them every week, subbing in a free agent DEF on bye week. Defense is the most ignored position on fantasy football rosters other than the lowly Kicker. With Shuffling Defense Strategy (SDS) you are taking advantage of the other owners’ lack of attention and profiting.

The fantasy projections for this season have the top 10 defenses averaging 134 points over the year, 8.4 points per game. By accurately using SDS, you can potentially double this number every week by playing a defense based on matchup.

For example, let’s look at the first few weeks of the 2010 NFL season. In week one, Seattle, Arizona, Detroit, Washington and Carolina (2%, 29%, 2%, 7%, 13% owned, respectively) were in the top seven point scoring fantasy defenses. Each of these teams scored more than 12 points. In week two, Miami, San Diego, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Atlanta and Kansas City (all teams under 50% owned at the time) scored more than 12 points. The common theme among these top scoring defenses: they faced an opponent with a poor offense.

So, which strategy would you rather employ? Draft the Pittsburgh Steelers in round 8, wasting a valuable bench spot and scoring an average of nine points per game? Or switch your defense weekly with a team in free agency and potentially get 12 points per game?

By simply doing a little research, or reading the research on a site (ahem, GodHatesLosers) that does the research for you, you can find the best matchup that is sitting idly on Waivers. With a little practice, and a healthy dose of GHL advice, you can increase your scores by four points per game, and have that trophy in hand in no time. It’s that easy. Also, you’re welcome.

Chris Johnson Question

Hey GHL readers!

If you have had a draft already, please riddle me this...

Where did Chris Johnson fall in your league. I've seen him taken as high as pick 6 and in my league draft last night he fall all the way to pick 10 in the third round.

Post in the comments where you are seeing CJ go in your drafts. Also, please include whether you are standard or PPR, et.

Thanks a lot! Good luck to anyone drafting tonight! I've got another one Monday night.

2011 Fantasy Football IDP Strategy and Cheat Sheet

I will admit that I am relatively new to the IDP game. I have played in two Individual Defensive Player (IDP) leagues in the past and have a very deep one scheduled for this season. You can expect this article to be crazy thorough because I'll be using it on draft day myself.

FYI, this post is very long. I have broken it down into some main headlines: Standard Scoring Breakdown, IDP Commentary, IDP Overall Draft Strategy, IDP Position Draft Strategy, and IDP rankings. If you just want the rankings, skip to the end. Looking for how to draft, find it in the middle. Got it? Wonderful!

Adrian Peterson vs. Arian Foster: Who is Really Number One?

You've got the first pick in your fantasy football draft. So who will it be? Minnesota Vikings' Adrian Peterson or Houston Texans' Arian Foster?

There are two backs at the top of everyone’s draft chart. It’s borderline unanimous. Adrian Peterson, a top fantasy football running back since his rookie season, versus Arian Foster, a monster who broke onto the scene in 2010. There is a clear argument to be made for draft either one of these stars. But which one will be better? We’ll look at five different categories to find out exactly which of these running backs you should be taking with the first overall pick.

2011 Fantasy Football Position Rankings - Preseason Week 2

As promised here are the 2011 fantasy football rankings for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, kicker and defense. I know that a lot of guys have drafts today or tomorrow, so print it out, study up and dominate. Good luck, everyone.

Fantasy Football Player Profile: Baltimore Ravens' Ray Rice

Fantasy Football Profile: Why I’m Drafting Ray Rice with Fantasy Pick Number Three

I’m well aware that I am not proving myself as some kind of soothsayer, but hear me out. Mock drafts have Baltimore Ravens’ running back Ray Rice having an ADP between 4.8 and 5.3. So you aren’t going to hear an argument from anyone about whether or not he is a first round selection. No one is going to question that he is one of the few elite backs in the fantasy football draft this year.

But this article is for those sitting with pick number three or four in their draft. This article is for the few people who are passing up on this man and letting him fall to pick five or six. I’m out to prove why Ray Rice should be… nay… must be the third running back on your fantasy football draft list.

Fantasy Football Player Profile: Chicago Bears Receiver Roy Williams

Why I'm Absolutely Drafting Roy Williams in the 2011 Fantasy Football Draft

There is one thing that you have probably read over and over again if you frequent fantasy football advice columns. The word "Value." We can all understand what this means when you are locking up a starting lineup. You're going to find the guys that are going to perform the best.

It's not a hard thing to do. There are thousands of places to find average draft positions. And tons of player lists and experts telling you who the most consistent 15 players are going to be. The real sense of the value doesn't come until the later picks. When you are looking for guys who might break out, guys who have a chance to do something great. You are looking for worth, for some kind of merit, a shimmer of redeeming value.

And when you are shopping for backups in the later rounds, you'll find one of these players just sitting and waiting for a chance to redeem himself.  Roy Williams is going to be that player this year. 

2011 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Kick Return Leagues

So, the bad thing about asking people for article ideas for your blog is that you are pretty inclined to actually write about their suggestion. This one comes from @ChevyJas from Twitter. Chevy wants an article about the top punt and kick returners for a fantasy football league that give points for return yardage.

Anyone who is a frequent reader of my site will know that I am pretty anti-return yardage in fantasy football. It is an unjust scoring system when Detroit Lion Stefan Logan is the highest fantasy scoring wide receiver on his team instead of Calvin Johnson. And don’t feed me the argument that “They are an important part of the team and should get points for what they do.” No. In that case, let’s make a league where you can draft offensive linemen and punters. Their effort affects games. But no one wants to join the league where I’m taking Steve Weatherford in the fourth round because he’s a beast at pinning them in the 20.

But I’ll write the kick returner article, even though I disagree. I will cater to the requests of the ill-informed minority. I hate discrimination more than my grandfather in Boca hates his new black neighbors. (Because the husband is always away on business as a lawyer and doesn’t have the time to properly care for his lawn, you racist.)

Strategy for Drafting Early Receivers

Every day we are getting closer and closer to the 2011 NFL season, which means that we are definitely getting closer and closer to your fantasy football draft. For the next few weeks we will be updating the player rankings as preseason statistics come in. We’ll also be providing you with more draft analysis and strategies so you get the most out of your 2011 fantasy football selections. If you have an idea for a draft strategy article or something you would like to know more about in the preseason, give us a comment and we’ll provide our expertise.

Something that I have been talking about a lot is the need to draft your running backs early. There is a dwindling number of elite talent at the running back position, so taking them with your first couple picks is a pretty simple way to a successful season. However, in larger leagues, this sometimes poses a problem for those with early picks.

Response to Matthew Berry's Draft Day Manifesto

Good Morning God Hates Losers!

Today I want to put my two cents in about the infamous Draft Day Manifesto. The Manifesto is an epic post done every year and presented by Fantasy Guru Matthew Berry of ESPN. He is a writer that I truly respect and try to emulate with every post.

However, in the recent Draft Day Manifesto post, the first thing he talks about is Michael Vick. I would have no problem getting Vick on my team, but anyone who has read any of my posts will know that I don't find him a first round quarterback. Berry disagrees. You can read the entire Draft Day Manifesto here (don't worry kids, it will open in a new window). But I'll lay down the groundwork of the disputed statistics in his column.

Here we go.

2011 Fantasy Football Draft: Get a gameplan

What’s up GHL readers?

I’m currently in the works of a 2011 fantasy football busts list which should be good to go by tomorrow. I don’t have a big post today for you, got a lot of other stuff going on. But I’ll be back to the usual pace again tomorrow.

In the meantime, I’ll throw together this little post reiterating something I have spoken a little about already.

I want to re-address the importance of planning out your entire draft. I touched upon this in the “Top Ten Fantasy Draft Mistakes” post last month, but I feel that just touching on it is not doing it justice. This is hands down one of the most important parts of your entire fantasy football season.

Pre-preseason Fantasy Football Sleeper Picks

I’ve all but given up on posting a mock draft on this site. Perhaps once my actual leagues start drafting, I will post one of those. Some ass decided that he was only going to draft Chargers, taking Antonio Gates with the 4th overall pick. Well done sir. Enjoy your 4-13 finish.

So, I decided it would be a nice time to highlight some sleepers. It’s too early to go all out and make insane assumptions, but these sleepers I feel pretty solid about. Some of them to even start for my potential fantasy football team.

Draft Strategy: So Crazy, It Might Just Work

Alright. I’m going to admit that this draft strategy might be a little bit out there. I have no idea if I picked this up from an article or something in the last few seasons, or it was some kind of fantasy football induced dream, but this strategy is crazy enough that it might actually work. Caution: I have never used this strategy and the workings behind it are entirely theoretical. OK. Let’s do this.

Fantasy season starts out nice. For the first four weeks there is at least a small sense of parity in your league. But then bye weeks happen. And we all know that there is nothing as frustrating as having one of your key players out on a bye week. Even worse, two of them. So from Week 5 of the NFL through Week 10 or 11, your team is not performing at the highest level. It doesn’t matter how good your draft was, for those 6 weeks, your team is playing below 100% because one of your starters is off.

Value over Risk: 5 Arguments Against Fantasy Football Handcuffing

Hey GHL fans. This week we’re going to be focusing a little bit on some draft tactics and strategies that you can enforce in your league. Over the weekend, I tried my damnedest to run a few mock drafts, but unfortunately there was at least one idiot in each one of them skewing the data. I kid you not, some ass took Peyton Hillis with the second overall pick. Jerk. Anyways, let’s kick things off with my five arguments AGAINST Fantasy Football Handcuffing.

Fantasy football owner are constantly trying to maintain the greatest team they can manage. Whether it is by way of the snake draft or through auctions, the primary goal is a simple one: Value. Value is most noticeable in the first five or six rounds of the draft, after all those are the rounds that you are drafting your starters. But the real subtlety of value comes in the later rounds in selecting backups.

2011 Fantasy Football Kicker and Defense Rankings

Before we go on to announce the top kickers and defenses available for the 2011 Fantasy Football draft, I want to take the time to welcome all of our new guests. We appreciate everyone who comes to this site whether it is just to read up on some news, review your draft strategy or ask for advice throughout the draft and fantasy football season.

Whether you have been with us for a year, or this is your first time visiting, I invite you to join our RSS feed to get updates whenever we post them and follow us on Twitter where we will be posting more and more information once we get into the actual Fantasy Football season. Thank you all again for spreading the word about God Hates Losers and making us your go to website for all things fantasy.

Enough of the mushy stuff, time for kickers and defense. I can’t stress this enough—save these positions til the very end. Drafting a solid backup or sleeper at wide receiver, running back or quarterback will be much more beneficial to you in the long run than taking the Steelers defense in round nine. Let another owner take that jump and then mock them relentlessly when it doesn’t pay off.

So, let’s do this. After the jump, you’ll find the top 15 kickers and defenses for the 2011 fantasy football season.

Follow these links to see rankings of other positions:
Quarterback - Running Back - Wide Receiver - Tight End - Kicker/Defense

The Top Ten Fantasy Football Draft Mistakes

We are all excited about fantasy football. We are paying disturbingly close attention to the post-lockout NFL and all of the Free Agent acquisitions that are sure to shake up the fantasy football year. I'm sure everyone is looking at draft boards, and starting mocks, and coming up with superior, clever team names.

So, while all of the rankings are being made, it's wise to take a little time out of your day to learn about draft strategy. After all, what is the point of doing all the research if you're just going to misuse it.

Read on to learn the Top Ten Fantasy Football Draft Mistakes: