Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Injury Roulette or: How I Stole Miles Austin and Marques Colston

The injury bug is a bitch. A toothy, machete (to capitalize on a phrase by Mr. Austin) wielding bitch. To quote Andre 3000’s take on injuries: Bitch, stupid ass bitch / Old punk ass bitch, old dumb ass bitch / A bitch is a bitch, just a bitch. That’s what injuries are. Just ask Jamaal Charles, the Kansas City Chiefs, all of KC’s fans, and all those jokers that grabbed Charles in the first round.

But a bitch can be a sweet lay too. Sometimes, it’s so good, you just have to suck it up and deal with it.

And that’s where you come in. You deal with the bitch because the sex is so damn good. And nothing, nothing, NOTHING is closer to sex in fantasy football than stealing a great player.



Enter Miles Austin and Marques Colston.. What do they have in common? Bum bodies. What else do they have in common? They are beasts.

Austin and Colston are out until approximately after the first bye-week. They’re doing nothing but collecting dust on some owner’s fantasy shelf, waiting for the day when their bodies don’t revolt like French peasants (seriously, is it so hard to bake loaves of bread?). They’re taking up bench spots for their owners, most of which are probably thinking something like, ‘I knew I shouldn’t have drafted him,’ or ‘Goddammit, I knew he was a reach there.’

This is where you come in. If you’re like me, you loaded up at the draft; sure, you probably drafted three sure-thing guys, but then you went for potential and upside and sleepers and handcuffs (don’t get kinky on me). That means, therefore, that you have talent— talent that is getting a lot of hype, talent that is sitting on your bench, talent that is largely unproven, and talent that could end up being worthless in a week.

Heed these words: Sell high.
If someone thinks that Hightower is going to be this years comeback player of the year, that somehow he is going to maintain his pace AND Mike Shannahan isn’t a douche bag x 20,0000, then trade him. Grab Austin. Go get Colston. Let them heal on your bench. Get loaded for the second half of the season, so that you can hopefully dominate the third half of the season—the playoffs. You want to win the championship, right? Is trading away 12 pts a game when you have a 10 pts ready to plug into their spot for two more weeks going to kill you? No. The answer is definitely no.

Heed these words: Buy low.
The value on these receivers is high. Their statistical worth, when healthy, has been measured and re-measured to almost endless degrees. What about that young buck in your stable? How much do you know about him? What is his real worth?

If you can afford the roster spot and can stomach the risk of losing an unproven asset (or, for that matter, a proven but under performing asset), seek out owners with injured players, and those owners who have lost—and badly—the last couple of weeks. They’re weak. They think only in short-sighted terms. They were looking forward to drinking deep from the wine of victory, only to taste the bitter gall of defeat. Capitalize on their sorrow. Make a trade that will pay dividends down the road, if you can afford it and if you have the balls to do so.


-Jordan

23 comments:

  1. Awesome post, I just picked Colston up off waivers this week--and am making a play on Miles Austin as we speak. The trade proposal is laughable (either D Henderson or E Decker for Austin), but hey maybe they'll bite?

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  2. ok, tell me if this is worth it 14 team ppr league, Im buying: Miles Austin, David Nelson, and selling Brandon Marshal and Denarious Moore or jabar Gaffney, cant really go lower since the rest I have I could trade is Roy Williams, Greg Olsen and Delone Carter wich im sure wont bite.

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  3. Maybe, but, in the words of Matthew Berry, "Don't be that guy." But hell, I was chided by one of my best friends for trying to "trade rape" their future sister-in-law (Newton for McCoy [LeSean, not Colt]).

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  4. I buy Austin and I like Nelson. Marshal has 24 targets this year, the same as Austin. Both have the same amount of receptions. The difference, obviously, is in TDs. I'm not a Henne believer (nor a Dolphins believer, for that matter), but neither am I believer in Romo...'s health. I don't know what your roster spots look like, but I don't like this trade right now: It's still a bit too early for you, what with those players being your only other WR/TEs. Sit on it for a week or two, then make the trade. Oh, and Delone Carter is a fantastic person for a deep league, and with Newton passing to Olsen, I wouldn't let him go just yet either (let him catch some TDs this weekend). But Williams sucks. He's fucking terrible.

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  5. What if I can just pick up Colston off waivers? Seriously, he was dropped in one of my leagues for Devery Henderson. If I already own Meachem, should I even bother with Colston? Or should I try to trade Meachem to the Austin owner and then get Colston? I have A. Johnson, DJax, and Nicks as my current starters, so I can give them time to heal.

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  6. Nevermind. I'm not going to try to get Austin. The manager that owns him is a rookie, and I don't want my league to think I'm trying to "trade rape" her, as Jordan so eloquently put it.

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  7. Funny you posted that because in one of my leagues I drafted both Charles and Austin (yeah, tough week 2, but I still got the W).
    I tried to have some depth trying to pickup some sleepers but I was stuck with Addai and Hightower as RBs (Gore is my other starting RB).
    Workable but somewhat disapointing.

    So I started to receive some trade proposals and I even really considered Austin for Cedric Benson + Jonathan Stewart. A shame, I know, because I really do not trust Benson.
    That's why I decided I would sit a week on it and see if I could get more for him.
    And just now I agreed to a trade to get Tolbert for Hightower + Floyd.

    Now I'll have Tolbert for this week's matchup and him + Addai to play the rest of the way and don't have to trade Austin away (I still feel I need some improvement, but I do believe somebody will be available on the waiver wire when the bye weeks come).

    My problem now is that I'm kind of thin at WRs.
    Austin will ride the bench for some weeks. The starters right now are Santana Moss, Santonio Holmes and Devery Henderson, which I feel is a respectable group.
    But for the bye weeks my options are slim.
    I had a bench of Floyd, Sims-Walker and Braylon Edwards. Just traded Floyd and lost Edwards to an injury (damn week 2).

    So as of today my bench is a recovering Austin, Sims-Walker and Jerome Simpson, that I just picked off waivers.
    I have an eye on Nate Burleson who was dropped today. I'll try to get him from waiver on Friday. If I miss on him, not many other options, so I guess I'd try to pick Pierre Thomas instead (was dropped today too) or I may pick Danario Alexander.

    This league has a different scoring system (20yd running or receiving for a point, no fraction), so TDs are a premium and Alexander is a good red zone target.

    If you have any other better advice, I would love to hear.
    Sorry for the long post.

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  8. UPDATE:
    I got David Nelson from the waiver wire (didn't see him before).
    So my bench now is Austin, Sims-Walker, Jerome Simpson and David Nelson.
    I'll try to get Nate Burleson from waivers on Friday. Which one would you drop for him?

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  9. I need to drop one of these bench players because i have no defense right now and need to pick one up. it is 10 team , 1 point per recption, my choices to drop are

    Johnny Knox
    Michael Bush
    Cedric Benson
    Willis McGahee
    Nate Washington

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  10. Simpson or Nelson. Authorities found a hell of a lot of pot at Simpson's house this past week, so he could be going down a long, dark road toward court dates and Roger Goodell.

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  11. I like picking up Colston off waivers and then packaging him with some sloth to get Austin. Colston plays in the higher scoring offense, and everyone loves him like he's Princess Dianna. It's not necessarily trade raping the rookie, but it definitely won't be 100% consensual.

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  12. I would drop either Knox or Bush. Knox plays for those Bad News Bears, and everyone has been wondering when he would develop into anything special. Michael Bush is only good as a handcuff at this point. Depending on who your #1 RB is, I would still probably drop Bush, though. Benson is serviceable and McGahee is going to do a lot more running this year than people thought he would.

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  13. I have Dallas Clark and Aaron Hernandez as my tight ends. Ive been rolling with Hernandez but with him out I am a little unsure going with Clark. Fred Davis is available as a FA. You think I should drop Clark and pick up Davis? Dallas Clark is probably about the only person on my roster I could consider dropping and I am even unsure about doing that. Thanks for the advice!

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  14. Thanks man! loved the post... I think im pretty set everywere else, here's my starting lineup 14 team ppr
    QB Kevin Kolb
    WR Andre Johnson
    WR Brandon Marshall
    WR Jabar Gaffney
    RB Darren McFadden
    RB Ryan Mathews
    TE Rob Gronkowski
    DEF Green Bay

    So I willl hold on and see how this develops.. again thanks!

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  15. That's So RavensSeptember 22, 2011 at 3:42 PM

    Amendola and Colston have been dropped in my .5 PPR league. My WR core is pretty weak - Calvin, Percy, David Nelson, Bess. Should I drop Bess for Colston (or Amendola)?

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  16. Jordan, my RBS are McFadden, Mathews, Daniel Thomas and Delone Carter. Should I try to give up D. Thomas for bush and get that handcuff?

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  17. Well you called it. Some guy in my league just dropped Colston to pick up John Kasay. Best part is, he already has M. Bryant. He's carrying 2 kickers... Yah. Needless to say, I'm gonna pounce on him but I've got a low waiver position so I don't think he'll get to me.

    My problem: I already own Devery Henderson and Lance Moore. I'm looking to move one of them regardless of if I can grab Colston, and my target is Ryan Fitzpatrick. Do you think a D. Henderson or L. Moore for Fitzpatrick trade is fair? And even if you don't think it's fair, would you try to pull it off if you were me? I could use some QB help as my platoon of Eli/Freeman has been uninspired to say the least. The guy that owns Fitzpatrick also has Rivers, so he's never starting Fitzy unless it's the bye week. Would you rather have Moore or Henderson for the rest of the season?

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  18. Miles Austin (and Mario Manningham) owner here. Needless to say, I'm in a bind for this week at least behind VJax at WR. It's a 14 team league, so options are quite limited. My backups now are only Andre Roberts and Brandon Gibson - while I think the best of the slim FA market includes Brian Hartline, Titus Young, Ted Ginn, Donald Jones, Kevin Ogletree (if Dez is out too) and Tampa's backups Parker and Brizcoe. Do you think I should roll with my two backups as of now or take one of these guys?

    I also had to pick up Jermaine Gresham to fill in while Aaron Hernandez is out...

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  19. Need some solid trade advice. A guy in my league wants Fred Jackson. His usual starters are L. McCoy and SJax and he's having trouble filling his RB2 while SJax is out. Right now, his only back-up is McGahee, who he just picked up. The thing is, he clearly has no respect for my intelligence, because right after week one he offered me SJax and Freeman for Ray Rice. Now he's offered me Freeman straight up for FJax. (He's been trying to capitalize on my QB woes since I lost Peyton Manning.) I countered with FJax and Grossman for Stafford and Finley, telling him that the current stats would still favor his end of the deal. He hates Grossman, so no dice, but countered with Finley and Freeman for Bradford and FJax. There's no way in hell I'm taking that deal.

    I'm considering offering him FJax straight up for SJax. My thinking is that I can hopefully roll with Tate until either SJax or F. Jones are healthy enough to take back the RB2 job. Is that a good idea, or is Foster going to come back soon and make Tate useless? Since he's so keen on offering Freeman and was willing to deal Finley, maybe I should package something. (I'm weak at TE after trying out Kendricks for 2 weeks. Just dumped him for Keller.) I'm listing the rosters below so you can get the whole picture.

    Me: QB: Grossman, Bradford; RB: Rice, FJax, F. Jones, Tate; WR: Megatron, Wallace, Bryant, Decker, Meachem, A. Brown; TE: Keller

    Dickhead: QB: Stafford, Freeman; RB: McCoy, McGahee, SJax; WR: A. Johnson, D. Jackson, S. Moss, Hester, Green; TE: Graham, Finley

    Would love to get your thoughts on this. Oh, and I have no qualms about trade raping this guy. :) After all, it's what he's trying to do to me.

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  20. I would try FJax+Bradford for SJax+Stafford (that's a rhyme trade)
    It seems fair and could workout for both.

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  21. Glad you liked it! You have a fantastic team. One of the days I am going to chronicle my three teams on here.

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  22. Guy wants to trade with me who's hurting at WR & RB. The only people I would want on his team are Vick and/or M.Austin. He picked up Cam Newton and is rolling with him this week. What kind of deal should I propose? Or should I just forget it.


    qb - Ryan
    wr - Nicks
    wr - V. Jax
    wr - B. lloyd
    rb - McCoy
    rb - Forte
    te - D. Clark
    k - Cundiff
    d - DAL

    bench:
    Julio Jones
    D. Henderson
    Steve Smith (PHI)
    David Nelson
    Hightower
    Aaron Hernandez

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  23. If you are confident with Hernandez every week, then I would just compare the bye week matchup of Davis and Clark. Whoever's got it easier will win the spot.

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