Playoff Primer: Fantasy Football Player Strength of Schedule Analysis

This week’s focus will be all about gearing up for the fantasy playoffs. Generally, this will run from Week 14-17. While the first 13 weeks are important to get you a top spot in the playoffs, once that time rolls around, everyone starts back at 0-0. So getting ready for this event is a must.

The following post is going to tell you everything that you need to know about starting quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers in the fantasy playoffs. We have an in-depth breakdown of the strength of schedule for each one of these positions from Week 14 to Week 17. When making a trade offer or thinking of accepting one, always come back to this post.

Some of you are likely great with your teams, and I believe that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Any team that is on the bubble or really struggling to make a top spot will need to make some splashes in the coming weeks to get into the playoffs. For the next week or two, study these charts, take a look at the other teams in your league and ask any question you have on GHL. By the end of Week 11, it will be high time to start making the moves that you need to solidify your playoff performance.

While injuries will lead to some decent Waiver Wire pickups from here on out, your best bet to improve your team is through trades. There are a lot of factors to look at here, but the one that we will be focusing on today is fantasy football playoff strength of schedule.

There is a fine line that you shouldn’t cross when considering this statistic. While the defense teams are facing has a good amount to do with the success that they will see, you need to keep the players talent level in perspective. For example, the Chicago Bears’ receivers will have the easiest schedule from Week 14-17, but starting Knox, Bennett or Hester over a top performing receiver is absurd. So use the following statistics wisely.

These tables are meant to be used in evaluating your trades. The first thing you should look at is the past. The history of the particular player says a lot more about them than the future. But if you are in line to give up a running back who has very similar statistics compared to the running back you will receive, these rankings will certainly help make your decision easier.

Let’s being by looking at how the defenses rank up. In the following chart you will see each team, and how their defense ranks in terms of fantasy points given up at the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions. Defenses are ranked from 1-32, with 1 being the least points against and 32 being the most points against.

(All research done in the following charts was conducted on ESPN.com)

		QBs		RBs		WRs
Atlanta Falcons		19		7		21
Arizona Cardinals		25		17		28
Baltimore Ravens		3		1		9
Buffalo Bills		16		18		22
Carolina Panthers		17		32		3
Chicago Bears		22		20		17
Cincinnati Bengals		7		8		6
Cleveland Browns		2		15		1
Dallas Cowboys		9		14		6
Denver Broncos		32		32		32
Detroit Lions		5		5		13
Green Bay Packers		30		11		30
Houston Texans		4		6		14
Indianapolis Colts		27		24		29
Jacksonville Jaguars		10		10		5
Kansas City Chiefs		21		27		20
Miami Dolphins		29		3		24
Minnesota Vikings		28		18		27
New England Patriots		31		25		31
New Orleans Saints		18		12		15
New York Giants		11		29		25
New York Jets		1		28		4
Oakland Raiders		26		23		16
Philadelphia Eagles		12		30		8
Pittsburgh Steelers		6		16		2
San Diego Chargers		14		4		10
San Francisco 49ers		20		2		23
Seattle Seahawks		12		9		18
St. Louis Rams		23		26		25
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		24		31		19
Tennessee Titans		15		22		12
Washington Redskins		8		13		11

Knowing the strength of the defense is pivotal in predicting which players will be able to turn on the burners during the fantasy football playoff season.

Fantasy Football Playoffs: Quarterback Strength of Schedule

Next, we break down the quarterback position. This chart shows you the strength of the defense that each quarterback will face from Week 14 to Week 17. They are ordered based on the overall total of the four week span.

Quarterback	Week 14	Week 15	Week 16	Week 17	Total
Ryan Fitzpatrick	14	32	29	31	106
Jay Cutler	32	12	30	28	102
Matt Stafford	28	26	14	30	98
Tim Tebow	22	31	16	21	90
Tarvaris Jackson	23	22	20	25	90
Matt Cassel	1	30	26	32	89
Tom Brady	8	29	32	16	85
Blaine Gabbert	24	19	15	27	85
John Beck	31	11	28	12	82
Drew Brees	15	28	19	17	79
Aaron Rodgers	26	21	22	5	74
Mark Sanchez	21	12	11	29	73
Carson Palmer	30	5	21	14	70
Matt Ryan	17	10	18	24	69
Matt Schaub	7	17	27	15	66
Alex Smith	25	6	12	23	66
Cam Newton	19	4	24	18	65
Matt Moore	12	16	31	1	60
Matt Hasselbeck	18	27	10	4	59
Tony Romo	11	24	12	11	58
Andy Dalton	4	23	25	3	55
Josh Freeman	10	9	17	19	55
Christian Ponder	5	18	8	22	53
Philip Rivers	16	3	5	26	50
Joe Flacco	27	14	2	7	50
Ben Roethlisberger	2	20	23	2	47
Michael Vick	29	1	9	8	47
Sam Bradford	12	7	20	6	45
Kevin Kolb	20	2	7	12	41
Colt McCoy	6	25	3	6	40
Curtis Painter	3	15	4	10	32
Eli Manning	9	8	1	9	27

Again, make sure you note the players past performances when deciding who is worth getting rid of and who is worth acquiring. While Ryan Fitzpatrick has the easiest four week schedule, trading Aaron Rodgers (11^th best schedule) for him is not a great move to make.

However if you have been starting Matt Ryan (a player with very similar stats to Ryan Fitzpatrick) all year long, then based on the strength of schedule, this would be a good trade to make to put you in the position to get the most out of your playoff roster.

Also, if you have a quarterback who has been disappointing this year, you might find that someone like Jay Cutler, who has a great schedule for Week 14-17, is sitting in free agency just waiting to be owned.

Fantasy Football Playoffs: Running Back Strength of Schedule

The effect of a player’s strength of schedule is most easily seen when you are looking at the running back position. There is a massive difference between the yards, touchdowns and fantasy points given up by a top five team like the Baltimore Ravens in comparison to a low ranked team like the Carolina Panthers or even a mid-ranked team like the Cleveland Browns.

The following chart breaks down which running backs will have the easiest road ahead once the fantasy playoffs roll around. The top performing 40 running backs are listed in strength of schedule order.

Running Back	Week 14	Week 15	Week 16	Week 17	Total
DeMarco Murray	29	31	30	29	119
Roy Helu	25	29	18	30	102
Reggie Bush	30	18	25	28	101
Daniel Thomas	30	18	25	28	101
Willis McGahee	20	25	18	27	90
Shonn Greene	27	30	29	3	89
LaDainian Tomlinson	27	30	29	3	89
Arian Foster	8	32	24	22	86
Ben Tate	8	32	24	22	86
Michael Turner	32	10	12	31	85
Maurice Jones-Drew	31	7	22	24	84
Jackie Battle	28	11	23	21	83
Darren Sproles	22	18	7	32	79
Pierre Thomas	22	18	7	32	79
James Starks	23	27	20	5	75
Ahmad Bradshaw	14	13	28	14	69
Brandon Jacobs	14	13	28	14	69
Frank Gore	17	16	9	26	68
Marshawn Lynch	26	20	2	17	65
LeGarrette Blount	10	14	32	7	63
Matt Forte	21	9	11	18	59
LeSean McCoy	3	28	14	13	58
Rashard Mendenhall	15	2	26	15	58
Jahvid Best	18	23	4	11	56
Jonathan Stewart	7	6	31	12	56
DeAngelo Williams	7	6	31	12	56
BenJarvus Green-Ellis	13	21	3	18	55
Fred Jackson	4	3	21	25	53
Chris Johnson	12	24	10	6	52
Ray Rice	24	4	15	8	51
Adrian Peterson	5	12	13	20	50
Cedric Benson	6	26	17	1	50
Peyton Hillis	16	17	1	16	50
Darren McFadden	11	5	27	4	47
Ryan Mathews	18	1	5	23	47
Mike Tolbert	18	1	5	23	47
Michael Bush	11	5	27	4	47
Joseph Addai	1	22	6	10	39
Steven Jackson	9	8	16	2	35
Beanie Wells	2	15	8	9	34

These numbers you just saw will tell a great deal in the future of running backs when we get to the end of the season. Mostly the big names that we see at the bottom of the list.

If you have a running back who is near the top of the rankings now like Darren McFadden, Ryan Mathews, Steven Jackson or Beanie Wells, the next few weeks would be fantastic time to think about selling them. All have name value right now and are seated in the top 15 in running back scoring. By making a move on a back with similar stats (or packaging your RB with a low receiver) you can easily move up the rankings with your running back and find one with a more favorable schedule.

Even looking at RB2s and bench running backs, we can see that mid-ranked RBs like DeMarco Murray, Shonn Greene, Daniel Thomas, Roy Helu and Willis McGahee all have very favorable schedules. You will be able to spend much less for them, getting rid of one of you RB2 or a couple good bench players to boost your starting running back position.

Fantasy Football Playoffs: Wide Receiver Strength of Schedule

Receiver is generally the most up-and-down position. Outside of a handful of consistent guys, the stats of the remaining players changes greatly from one week to another. Some players will have great performances against good defenses, some will have awful performances against bad teams. Receiver has a lot more to do with luck than quarterback or running back do.

That being said, we can still use this chart as a prediction tool to find the most beatable matchups. The top 48 receivers are listed here in strength of schedule order.

Wide Receiver	Week 14	Week 15	Week 16	Week 17	Total
Devin Hester	32	18	30	27	107
Earl Bennett	32	18	30	27	107
Steve Johnson	10	24	32	31	97
David Nelson	10	24	32	31	97
Doug Baldwin	25	17	23	28	93
Sidney Rice	25	17	23	28	93
Jabar Gaffney	31	25	27	8	91
Eric Decker	17	31	22	20	90
Wes Welker	11	32	24	22	89
Deion Branch	11	32	24	22	89
Calvin Johnson	27	16	10	30	83
Dwayne Bowe	4	30	16	32	82
Jason Hill	19	21	12	29	81
Dez Bryant	25	19	8	25	77
Miles Austin	25	19	8	25	77
Plaxico Burress	20	8	25	24	77
Santonio Holmes	20	8	25	24	77
A.J. Green	14	25	28	9	76
Denarius Moore	30	13	20	10	73
Darrius Heyward-Bey	30	13	20	10	73
Michael Crabtree	28	2	18	25	73
Steve Smith	21	14	19	15	69
Greg Jennings	16	20	17	13	66
Jordy Nelson	16	20	17	13	66
Brandon Marshall	8	22	31	4	65
Marques Colston	12	27	21	3	63
Nate Washington	15	29	5	14	63
Lance Moore	12	27	21	3	63
Vincent Jackson	22	9	13	16	60
Percy Harvin	13	15	11	17	56
Andre Johnson	7	3	29	12	51
Mike Wallace	1	23	25	1	50
Brandon Lloyd	18	7	2	23	50
Antonio Brown	1	23	25	1	50
Larry Fitzgerald	23	1	7	18	49
Early Doucet	23	1	7	18	49
Anquan Boldin	29	10	1	7	47
Torrey Smith	29	10	1	7	47
Jeremy Maclin	24	4	6	11	45
DeSean Jackson	24	4	6	11	45
Roddy White	3	5	15	19	42
Julio Jones	3	5	15	19	42
Joshua Cribbs	2	28	9	2	41
Pierre Garcon	9	12	14	5	40
Reggie Wayne	9	12	14	5	40
Mike Williams	5	6	3	21	35
Victor Cruz	6	11	4	6	27
Hakeem Nicks	6	11	4	6	27

It is very important to keep individual talent in mind here. Chicago receivers have far-and-away the easiest schedule of any team, but they are an inconsistent bunch right now. Unless we see major strides in one individual’s performance, they might be worth leaving alone. Same can be said for Seattle receivers.

A good way to increase the value of your team is by packaging a receiver with a running back to increase the talent where you need it. Remember to keep in mind the Trade Math that I posted a month ago.

For example, if you are in need of receiver help, but have two solid starting running backs and a great running back on your bench, you should find a team that needs running back help. Use this chart (and keep talent in mind) and offer them your WR2 or WR3 plus your great bench running back. In return ask for their two high receivers. It is likely that the math will add up, you will only be sacrificing one starter and gaining two better ones!

If you have been having great performances from Victor Cruz or Pierre Thomas this year, their fantasy value is likely as high as it will get, meaning that you can sell them and get the most in return. You can see that their fantasy playoff schedule leaves them weak, so you can easily go out and find a receiver much higher on the list with a similar point total.

In closing, always remember:

• Consider the past before looking at Strength of Schedule.
• For one-man trades, try to find a player with similar fantasy points but a better strength of schedule.
• Now is the time to start shopping around that great performer that is just wasting on your bench for someone that will upgrade your starting lineup.
• Packaging two players together is a great way to get the most out of your trade.
• Always, always, always do the math.

GodHatesLosers is always here to weigh in on your trade and hand out advice. If you want to contact us about any trade ideas that you have or any proposals that you receive, feel free to do so on this post or any Advice Time post that you see.

Now get out there and start scouting. With a little research and patience, you will be able to create the best playoff team in your league and walk away with the title.