Saturday, November 5, 2011

Fantasy Football Midseason Review - Tight End


To view the Midseason Quarterback Review, click here.
To view the Midseason Running Back Review, click here.
To view the Midseason Wide Receiver Review, click here.
Our final midseason review is up - the tight end. You will see:
1) My Midseason Fantasy Football Awards - I will be naming the top performers, the best draft day steals and the duds at each position.
2) You will find a chart of the top ranked fantasy football players, divided by position. This chart compares their current totals with their draft positions to give you an idea of how everything is shaking out.
Tight ends have been a bit of a surprise this year. Some have been great. Others have been not so great. Like so many other positions, injuries have played a large factor. Certain players being hurt have increased a tight ends fantasy value (Owen Daniels, Fred Davis), while it has drastically hurt others (Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark).
Here is how the tight ends break down so far this season.

Top Performers
3) Jason Witten
Witten is always a workhorse. This year is no different. He is constantly one of the most consistent players of the game and at this point in his career he is almost a lock to break some important records and make the Hall of Fame.
His fantasy numbers have suffered a little from past seasons, but he is still the third best. Taken as the third tight end in most fantasy drafts, Witten has a modest 66 fantasy points. He leads the Dallas Cowboys in receptions and receiving yards and is among the top TEs in all aspects of his game.
2) Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski has benefited from the injury of Aaron Hernandez and is right behind wide receiver Wes Welker in terms of receiving for the New England Patriots. After a stellar season last year, Gronkowski shot up to the 10th drafted tight end in the 2011 fantasy season.
He has 495 yards, the third most of all tight ends, and five touchdowns where he is tied for second of all tight ends. He has been a consistent player this year and continues to see big numbers after the return of Hernandez, which is good news for his owners.
1) Jimmy Graham
Damn. That's really all you can say. Through eight games this season, Graham has totaled 713 yards. Meaning that he is on pace for 1,426 this season, which would break the yardage record of a tight end by more than 130 yards.
He has the third highest reception total of all NFL players and has the fifth most receiving yards of all NFL players. His five touchdowns are second among tight ends.
In short, he is having one of the best statistical season of a tight end of all time. As the sixth tight end taken in fantasy football drafts, if you picked passed by the big names for this guy in the sixth or seventh round, congrats on your fantastic decision-making skills.

Steals of the Draft
3) Jimmy Graham
I know that I just talked about him, but when you are shooting for a record season like his is, you have to count him as a steal. He has 101 fantasy points this season, which is 21 more than the second highest tight end, 35 more than the third highest.
He was the sixth tight end taken in the draft. If this chart was combined with the wide receiver chart, Jimmy Graham would be at number five. Yeah, he was a steal.

2) Greg Olsen
Sixth highest numbers of all tight ends, 17th tight end drafted. Not to toot my own horn here, but, yeah... I called that.
While Olsen is only averaging about 45 yards per game, he is earning his points in the end zone with four touchdowns, the same as Carolina Panther star receiver, Steve Smith. Olsen is Cam Newton's favorite red zone target and will continue to put up similar numbers all season long.

1) Fred Davis
Even before the Redskins' starting tight end, Chris Cooley was injured, Fred Davis was making a bit of a name for himself. He had 11 receptions for 191 yards and a score in his first two games of the season.
With the injury to Santana Moss, Davis has become the favorite target of whoever the hell Shanahan decides to start at quarterback. In the last three games, Davis had had 22 receptions for 269 yards and a touchdown.
Davis shows no signs of slowing down at all and until Moss gets back, Davis can be considered the best receiver on the Redskins. For a tight end who went unselected in nearly all fantasy football drafts this season, he is putting together a fantastic year. He is currently the fourth best fantasy football tight end in 2011.

Duds of the Draft
3) Tie: Kellen Winslow and Dallas Clark
Coming into the season, people expected a lot out of every Tampa Bay player. Fantasy owners just haven't seen it. One would think that with the minimal stats coming from Tampa receiver Mike Williams, Kellen Winslow's statistics would be through the roof. But that is quite untrue.
Winslow was the 11th tight end taken in most fantasy drafts, but has not put up the stats to reflect that position. His numbers make him the 23rd ranked tight end as he has not once been able to find the end zone.
Dallas Clark, like Reggie Wayne in the WR rankings, has fallen victim to the glaring lack of Peyton Manning in Indianapolis. He was the fourth highest tight end taken in 2011 fantasy football drafts, but has only put up the numbers to give him 38 fantasy points, good enough for 19th in the league at his position.
2) Marcedes Lewis
I was borderline shocked to see him taken so early in drafts this year, but he was pretty popular as the 9th highest selected tight end. Last year, he did perform well, with 700 yards and 10 touchdowns, leaving him among the top fantasy scorers, but it was widely predicted that he would not come near those numbers again.
The inclusion of a rookie quarterback made matters even worse and Lewis's stats and Lewis's owners have suffered.
So far this season, he has just 15 receptions for 174 yards. His touchdown total has gone from 10 last season to zero. Many people guessed that last year's numbers were not a fluke, they have sadly learned otherwise.
1) Antonio Gates
I do hate putting injured players on the list, but when you are the first tight end taken, and reached for in the fourth round, you really have a lot of expectations on your shoulders.
Gates was shut out in Week 2 against the Patriots and then missed three games. This has left his stat line looking pretty bleak with just 17 receptions for 201 yards and a single touchdown. Not good enough to make the top 20 fantasy tight end list.
Good news for Gates owners is that he has been back for two weeks and has re-emerged as one of the top targets on the Chargers. You can expect his stats to be around six receptions and 80 yards per game as long as he is on the field from here on out.
Top 20 Fantasy Football Running Back Performances
The following chart is compiled of information taken from fantasyfootballcalculator.com. All draft positions were in mock drafts done in early September. Players are ranked in order of their total fantasy football points per game (FFPPG).
The Prediction bar on the right side measures whether I think the player will continue at this pace for the rest of the year, see a decline (-), or improve their rankings (+).
Ranking
Player Name
Draft
Rank
Diff.
Fantasy Points
Predict
1
Jimmy Graham
6
+5
101

2
Rob Gronkowski
10
+8
80

3
Jason Witten
3
---
66

4
Fred Davis
N/D
N/D
64
+
5
Tony Gonzalez
8
+3
62

6
Greg Olsen
17
+11
60

6
Owen Daniels
7
+1
60

8
Jermichael Finley
2
-6
57
+
9
Aaron Hernandez
13
+4
54

10
Scott Chandler
N/D
N/D
49

10
Dustin Keller
19
+9
49

10
Heath Miller
N/D
N/D
49
+
13
Brandon Pettigrew
14
+1
48
+
14
Vernon Davis
5
-9
47

15
Jake Ballard
N/D
N/D
45

16
Jermaine Gresham
N/D
N/D
41
+
17
Benjamin Watson
N/D
N/D
40

18
Jared Cook
18
---
39

19
Dallas Clark
4
-15
38

19
Joel Dreesen
N/D
N/D
38
-

Unlisted: Antonio Gates (1st TE taken), Marcedes Lewis (9th), Kellen Winslow (11th), Zach Miller (12th), Visanthe Shianco (15th), Brent Celek (16th)

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