OK. Consider this your warning. The next few days are going to be pretty epic.
Each post is going to be broken down into a few categories.
1) My Midseason Fantasy Football Awards - I will be naming the top performers, the best draft day steals and the duds at each position.
2) You will find a chart of the top ranked fantasy football players, divided by position. This chart compares their current totals with their draft positions to give you an idea of how everything is shaking out.
Top Performers
3) Drew Brees
Brees started out the year strong with a huge performance against the Green Bay Packers. Even after losing his top receiver, he managed to put up solid points week after week. The offense is full of talent at all skill positions.
Brees was the fifth quarterback drafted in most leagues, with the average draft position (ADP) of 26.5. If you jumped on him in the third round, you are likely sitting pretty right now.
2) Cam Newton
Newton is currently leading all fantasy football quarterbacks in points. His average points per game is riding at 23.
He has been doing his work through the air, with the second highest yardage total in the league, but his huge fantasy football numbers are mainly due to Newton leading the league at the quarterback position in rushing touchdowns with a total of seven.
There is something seriously wrong with the system if he does not end up the league's Offensive Rookie of the Year.
1) Aaron Rodgers
I've said it from the start: this man should be the first quarterback taken off the board. At 26 fantasy football points per game (FFPPG), Rodgers has the highest average of every PLAYER in the NFL.
His 20 touchdown passes lead the league, and he has only thrown three interceptions. It's always a risk to grab a quarterback in the first round, but if you took him, you are reaping the rewards.
Steals of the Draft
3) Ryan Fitzpatrick
The Buffalo Bills quarterback went largely undrafted at the beginning of the 2011 season, but on his way to leading the Bills to a 5-2 record atop the AFC East, Fitzpatrick has racked up the fantasy points to those who wisely took him as a backup or added him after his stellar Week 1, four touchdown performance.
Fitzpatrick currently ranks 10th among quarterbacks in FFPPG with 15.3, higher than four different quarterbacks who were taken in the top 10.
2) Eli Manning
Eli Manning decided to show up this year after Peyton was unable to hit the field. Manning was 14th quarterback taken in most fantasy football drafts, but has put up the numbers to make him the 7th best, less than two points behind the first quarterback picked, Michael Vick.
Manning has over 2100 passing yards and 13 touchdowns, much of this without one of his top receivers. With an average draft position in the 10th round, if you decided to wait on him, it is paying off.
1) Cam Newton
Undoubtedly the surprise of the 2011 fantasy football season. Newton has done it with his arms and legs putting up stunning fantasy points every week.
Newton was hardly drafted at all at the start of the year, and owners will still hesitant to add him after his Week 1 performance. If he is your starter, you picked him off waivers. And if you picked him off waivers, congratulations, because the chances of winning your league skyrocketed.
Duds of the Draft
3) Peyton Manning
I feel that I have to put him because despite his injury, a lot of owners (including myself) gambled on him to play this season.
Manning was the 8th highest drafted quarterback, meaning that unfortunate owners wasted a high pick to jump on him.
2) Michael Vick
I might get a hard time for this one, but I felt it necessary to rub it in a little bit to those who drafted him in the first round. Hell, I know a bunch of people who took him first overall.
Vick is improving steadily as the year goes on, but for being the first quarterback taken in drafts around the country, You would expect him to be higher than the 6th position.
His numbers are still impressive with 19 points per game, but he is not living up to expectations at this time.
1) Philip Rivers
When you take a quarterback in the first few rounds, you are pretty certain that he is going to have a good year for you. When the 4th quarterback taken ends up as the 16th best quarterback halfway through the season, you have to slap your head.
Rivers is scoring just 13.1 points per game, worse than four players who went largely undrafted. Among those outperforming him: Mark Sanchez, Matt Hasselbeck and Colt McCoy. You know that hurt.
Hopefully you had a stunner of a draft with every other pick, because Philip Rivers, so far, has been a certified dud.
Top 20 Fantasy Football Quarterback Performances
The following chart is compiled of information taken from fantasyfootballcalculator.com. All draft positions were in mock drafts done in early September. Players are ranked in order of their average fantasy football points per game (FFPPG).
The Prediction bar on the right side measures whether I think the player will continue at this pace for the rest of the year, see a decline (-), or improve their rankings (+).
Ranking | Player Name | Draft Rank | Diff. | Overall ADP | Average FFPPG | Predict |
1 | Aaron Rodgers | 2 | +1 | 9.7 | 26 | |
2 | Cam Newton | N/D | N/D | N/D | 23 | - |
3 | Drew Brees | 5 | +2 | 26.5 | 21.1 | |
4 | Tom Brady | 3 | -1 | 19.8 | 21 | |
5 | Matthew Stafford | 11 | +6 | 80.0 | 19.1 | |
6 | Michael Vick | 1 | -5 | 5.1 | 19 | + |
7 | Eli Manning | 14 | +7 | 98.1 | 17.7 | + |
8 | Matt Schaub | 7 | -1 | 55.4 | 15.8 | |
9 | Ben Roethlisberger | 10 | +1 | 66.9 | 15.6 | + |
10 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | N/D | N/D | N/D | 15.3 | |
11 | Tony Romo | 6 | -5 | 41.1 | 14.9 | + |
12 | Mark Sanchez | 20 | +8 | 124.5 | 14.6 | |
13 | Matt Hasselbeck | N/D | N/D | N/D | 13.7 | - |
14 | Josh Freeman | 12 | -2 | 91.7 | 13.4 | |
15 | Colt McCoy | N/D | N/D | N/D | 13.3 | |
16 | Philip Rivers | 4 | -12 | 25.1 | 13.1 | + |
17 | Matt Ryan | 9 | -8 | 63.6 | 13.1 | |
18 | Alex Smith | N/D | N/D | N/D | 12.6 | |
19 | Jay Cutler | 17 | -2 | 118.8 | 12.4 | |
20 | Joe Flacco | 15 | -5 | 108.4 | 12.4 | + |
Unlisted: Peyton Manning (8th picked QB), Sam Bradford (13th), Kevin Kolb (16th), Kyle Orton (18th), Matt Cassel (19th)
For this week should i be starting Rivers vs. GB or Cassel vs. Den?
ReplyDeleteI was one of the unfortunate souls this year who drafted many duds high up. Our draft was in early august, so all signs were pointing to Peyton Manning playing. I wasted top draft picks on Phil Rivers, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, and a mid draft pick of Sam Bradford. Now I am 1-7. Rivers has since been traded for Larry Fitzgerald and Clark was dropped and Wayne sometimes plays and sometimes gets benched.
ReplyDeleteIf this is where we can ask advice, i still have a small chance to make the playoffs if things go perfect for me so i have a couple questions-
At QB do I start -
Colt McCoy
Joe Flacco
Bradford (if he plays)
Jay Cutler
Also who do I bench out of these 3 WRs ?
Reggie Wayne
Torrie Smith
Nate Washington
Yep I'm feelin' it! I sat last in our 10-team league, and took Rivers first and CJ second. Luckily I soon traded Johnson for M.Turner and that's paid off. We play 2 QB's (acutally one OP) and so I also had Stafford which has took some of the sting out of Rivers' suck season. McCoy has been my backup and I've played him a couple of times.
ReplyDeleteWhat's saved me (and put me in 2nd place so far) is Fred Jackson, who I plucked in the 8th round, and your great SDS advice. And Bradshaw going solo for a couple of games with Jacobs out. Thanks for the help!
I picked up Cam Newton in both my leagues, at 12th & 15th in the draft. It takes the sting out of all the suck WRs I picked up who haven't done squat.
ReplyDeleteGB gives up a ton of yards through the air. If you look at the past few seasons, Rivers is by far a better QB in the second half of the season. In the first half he wins half of his game. Second half, he has only lost like 8 or something crazy like that.
ReplyDeleteI think he could finally break out here against the second worst pass defense in the NFL.
Cassel (who is playing MIA by the way) is a decent play, but I still like Rivers better. He has more weapons, he is the veteran QB, he is playing the worse defense, he is at home.
I'd start Bradford if he plays. Cutler if he doesnt.
ReplyDeleteI'd sit Smith this week probably. PIT is a nasty pass defense.
Some years are just harder than others. Nothing you can do against injury.
Absolutely man.
ReplyDeleteGlad to hear a positive story of someone suffering through some poor play and draft duds and making it out pretty sunny on the other side!
Good call by you. He got drafted in one of my leagues, and was a waiver pick up in all the others. Great call!
ReplyDeleteSorry about the WRs though. Its been a bad year.