Tuesday, September 11, 2012

2012 Week 1 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire – Like’em or Leave’em

So, we’ve reached the end of Week 1. It was a rocky one for sure, but that is pretty expected for fantasy football on opening weekend.

Take for instance that the highest scoring wide receiver was Kevin Ogletree, who began the season owned in .4 percent of leagues. That is 4 out of every 1000 leagues, people.

Or maybe that the highest scoring running back was C.J. Spiller, busting out for 169 rushing yards on 14 attempts… against the N.Y. Jets defense.

And let’s not forget that both Mark Sanchez and Blaine Gabbert finished the season as a top 10 scoring quarterback this week.

And on the other end of the spectrum, a huge amount of marquee players fell flat fantasy-wise. Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Lloyd, Torrey Smith, Marques Colston, Dwayne Bowe, Victor Cruz, Vincent Jackson, Greg Jennings, Hakeem Nicks, And Wes Welker all scoring six points of less.

At running back Chris Johnson, Michael Turner, Trent Richardson, Ronnie Brown, Isaac Redman, Roy Helu, Cedric Benson, Fred Jackson, Peyton Hillis and Beanie Wells and DeAngelo Williams couldn’t even manage to break the four-point barrier.

But it was just week one. Things come and go. I wouldn’t worry too much about the low scoring stars, they always bounce back. The sleepers are the interesting kids. Here are my thoughts on the players worth picking up, and those that seem a little too good (fluky) to be true.

Here is my list of some waiver wire names that I like to either continue their scoring trend or to drop off. Let’s get to my Like’em or Leave’em.

Quarterback Waiver Wire Pickups

Alex Smith – Like’em
I’d take him as a backup if you feel that you need one. The Green Bay Packers aren’t necessarily a great passing defense, but you have to argue in Smith’s favor. Keeping his cool in Lambeau and putting up a pretty good stat-line. Seems that with the added receiver talent, the 49ers could be more than just a run-heavy offense that relies on the big-time DEF to win games for them.

Mark Sanchez – Leave’em
Smells like a fluke to me. The Buffalo defense, the one that everyone thought would be pretty dominant this season, looked miserable. Also, I have to look at his past and take into account that he has never been a fantasy darling. I commend him on shaking off all the off-season drama, and really putting up one of the best QB performances in the league this week. But you know that he will drop off and have bad games. And you know that when that happens, everyone in New York, the greater Gainesville area and the Bible Belt will be chanting “Tebow.”


Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups

C.J. Spiller – Like’em
Similar situation as last season. Fred Jackson gets hurt and C.J. Spiller is the man to step in. Except this year, he looks a hell of a lot better than he did last year. More than 10 yards per carry, a couple catches out of the backfield, a touchdown, all against the Jets defense. Not too shabby. The chances that he is available are pretty slim, but if you have him. I’d consider him RB2/Flex material.

Dexter McCluster – Like’em
Let me first state that this is for deep leagues, and that even in a deep league, I would expect a repeat performance before even fathoming putting the man in my starting lineup. But he is a running back that you can play as a receiver, which can be nice. And six receptions on 10 targets for 82 yards is impressive. Especially PPR leagues.

Knowshon Moreno – Leave’em
Touched the ball five times. Managed to score on one of them. Short of a McGahee injury, I would leave Moreno right where he is. Even then, he’ll be splitting carries with two other backs, since he is listed FOURTH on the depth chart. Had he not found the end zone, he’d have ended the game with one point.

Shaun Draughn – Leave’em
Essentially the same notes as Moreno. Likely it’s a good bet that if you’ve never heard of him before, he is best left where he is. Would have had three points if not for finding the end zone.

Alfred Morris – Torn
He did great. He had 30 carries for nearly 100 yards and two scores. It’d be a moron to say Leave’em. But, he is going to be a huge headache. The ‘Skins will likely rotate with Roy Helu and Evan Royster. And there will be no source of rhyme or reason too it because, apparently, Mike Shanahan despises me. If you have room or someone to drop, then go ahead and take him. Just expect that in a single game he could get you 20 points, or he could literally not touch the ball a single time.


Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups

Kevin Ogletree – See here

Stephen Hill – Like’em
I’m buying it. There is really not a huge amount of competition at the position. You have Holmes to deal with, and Kerley might actually be an issue some weeks (he’s a leave’em, by the way), but overall, I think that Sanchez just likes throwing to him. Holmes was targeted two more times than Hill, but Hill beat him in receptions, and of course touchdowns. He’s a guy that I would be more comfortable having on my bench than having in another team’s lineup.

Alshon Jeffrey – Like’em
I told you guys about this kid. You can’t go wrong lined up next to Brandon Marshall. I wish he had a few more targets and receptions, but 80 yards on three catches is never a bad thing.

Randall Cobb – Like’em
And, to counterbalance my Jeffrey post above, I’ll admit that I was wrong about Cobb. Thrown to nine times. Caught the ball nine times. With numbers like that, his yardage is going to be through the roof on some weeks. Don’t count on the return touchdowns to be frequent, but some receiving ones could be in the future. He was helped out though with Jennings off the field.

Andrew Hawkins – Give it a minute
Keep your eye on him. He is going to be under the radar, so don’t worry about leaving him on the list of free agents for now. But he was targeted nine times, caught eight of them for 86 yards. Whether that was just because the Bengals had to pass a lot from behind, we’ll leave that for next week. Just… pay attention here.

Jeremy Kerley, Cecil Shorts, Brandon Gibson, Aldrick Robinson – Leave’em
I’m going to need to see another similar performance from each of these players before doing anything like adding them. They had good games, each of them. But none of them are high on the depth chart, they all have a good amount of competition on their team for catches, and none of them have particularly trustworthy QBs.


Best Defensive Pickups of the Week

A little anecdote before this section. Last year there were 106 defensive touchdowns all season long. That is 6.235 each week. This week there were 10. Just chew on that for a little while.

My favorite SDS defenses going into next week are:
Cleveland Browns (1.3% owned)
Dallas Cowboys (43.3% owned)
Minnesota Vikings (7.9% owned)
New England Patriots (16.9% owned)
San Diego Chargers (1.7% owned)
Oakland Raiders (2.5% owned)
Washington Redskins (2.9% owned)

27 comments:

  1. Are your defense picks in any particular order? With those ownership rates you can pretty much have your pick. I like Oak and NE for next week, but then again, I went with the Bills last weekend...

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  2. Would you go Ronnie Brown, McCluster, Hill or Jeffery? My only backup WR is Bess right now so I'm leaning towards a receiver

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  3. I'm going to update this question. Drop Ronnie Brown and add Alex Smith as a backup for Brady

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  4. Trade Advice:
    So, I feel pretty good about my team but feel I could use an upgrade at QB. Currently I have Vick and Sanchez. I like Vick ok, but let's face it he seldom plays 16 games. I'm thinking of trying to trade Steve Smith (Car) for Tony Romo. The person that has Romo also has P. Manning but needs receiver help.

    At RB I have Rice, McFadden, Charles and Dwyer and at WR I have Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Steve Smith, Demaryius Thomas and Danny Amendola.

    What do you think? Should I try to move Smith for Romo? Hold pat? or try to make a different deal?

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  5. BTW we start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1RB/WR/TE, 1D, 1K

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  6. how do you like the cincy defense going against Weeden? I know they didnt do great against the ravens but that might motivate them and Weeden SUCKED.

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  7. Could not get olgetree link to work. Fluke or solid?

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  8. I am a user of the SDS and I originally drafted the Eagles. They looked impressive on paper (I didn't see the game) and I'm looking at which defense to roll with week 2. Are the Eagles a team worth holding on to or should I start shuffling now?

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  9. Just looked at their schedule and the Cardinals, Giants, Steelers, Lions, Falcons, and then the Saints through week 9......so yeah time to shuffle I guess.

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  10. Are the defensive picks in order?

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  11. Do you think this is a good lineup for this week or would you replace someone from my bench? Thanks a lot!


    Starting
    Tony Romo
    Hakeem Nicks
    Marques Colston
    Vincent Jackson
    Ray Rice
    Marshawn Lynch
    Jared Cook
    W/R Michael Bush


    Bench
    Robert Turbin
    Fred Davis
    Titus Young
    Ben Tate
    Michael Crabtree
    Ryan Williams
    Brandon LaFell
    Andy Dalton

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  12. IMO - bengalis are a must-play.

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  13. Fred jackson going down killed me at RB2. Right now my choices are Peyton HIllis, Isaac redman, jonathan dwyer or dexter mccluster. who do you like this week out of this pitiful group?

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  14. They were just kinda listed. But close to that order, I suppose. Just posed my DEF rankings. NE is a good pickup this week. Bills were a disappointment to everyone. They were owned in about every league.

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  15. To plug in as a starter? Tough one. McCluster actually looked pretty damn good. Its hard to judge though because it was the first game for two of those guys, and the other two don't have that much experience.

    As of now... I would say McCluster. Big gamble, but probably the one I trust most.

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  16. If you have more than 10 guys in your league, then a backup QB could be a good idea.

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  17. I think you can get away with making that trade. Hard to say if it will be accepted though. Youd be on the winning end with your WR depth already in place.

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  18. I've got them pretty high. Weeden and the rest of that offense looked miserable.

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  19. http://godhateslosers.blogspot.com/2012/09/2012-week-1-advice-time-and-what-to-do.html

    I dont expect that type of performance again.

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  20. Eagles should be solid. For this week at least. The game was terrible, and they benefited from Weeden being awful. But I still have them relatively high. Just posted the DEF ranks.

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  21. Exactly. That is why shuffling is a great idea.

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  22. Yes. But I just posted my defensive rankings. Look at those first before doing anything drastic.

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  23. Looks solid to me.

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  24. Pretty much a true story.

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  25. Tell me about it. I had him in three leagues. And the way Spiller played doesnt look good for when he does come back healthy.

    Dexter could turn out to be ok. Not ideal, but at least he gets receptions and yardage that way. WR points in a RB spot is a pretty good thing. pay attention to the RB that Pitt decides to go with. Redman wasn't too hot, so Dwyer could get more touches this week.

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  26. Harvin The Time of My LifeSeptember 14, 2012 at 2:24 PM

    12 team non ppr. 1pt/10yds rec/rush/ret yds. 6pt all TDs and bonuses for 40+ gains. Who do I start? Need 3WR, 2RB, 1wr/rb/te


    QB: Romo, Flacco


    RB: CJ2K, Richardson, Ry.Williams, D.Wilson, Leshoure, Lamar Miller


    WR: Harvin, A.Brown, Little, Titus Young, MWTB, LaFell, Donald Jones


    TE: Gates

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  27. RB should be your first two pretty obviously. Behind that you are pretty weak, I do like R Williams to take over that position later this year though.

    Harvin Brown are musts. the rest of the WR lineup is not that impressive. I honestly want to say Mike Williams but its a big risk. Little would be safer.

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