Thursday, September 6, 2012

2012 Week 1 Advice Time (and What to Do About Kevin Ogletree)

Hey there GHL faithful.

Some of you are aware of the majesty that is Advice Time. Others might be new here, so let's talk about it, shall we?

You have questions. Lineup, Waiver Wire, Trades, Who to Start, Who to Sit, Pick'em, Survival, etc. I've got answers. Post your questions and hear back directly from me. (Take that Yahoo and ESPN)

I will do everything in my power to have your questions answered by Sunday.  

Take Note: Due to circumstances beyond my control, I will not be able to answer any questions that are posted on Sundays. IF you do have one, Tweet it to me @godhateslosers and I'll do my best to get to it.

Ask early. Ask often. Ask away!

Now... onto that tricky Kevin Ogletree conundrum. Read more to see where I stand...

Here's the facts. Kevin Ogletree blew up last night. To the tune of 8 receptions, 114 yards and 2 touchdowns. He could very well end the week as the highest scoring fantasy wide receiver.

So why not jump on him? Allow me to play Devil's Advocate for a moment.

1) Before last night, you have likely never heard of him.

2) Last season he started the year as the number three WR for the Cowboys, but was overtaken immediately after they signed Laurent Robinson. A man off the street beat him in the position battle.

3) This is his 4th year in the NFL. Before last night's game, his career numbers were 25 receptions, 294 yards, and 0 touchdowns.

4) His performance last night resulted in more catches and yards than he accumulated in either of his first two years in the NFL.

5) In last night's game, the Giants were starting their 4th string cornerback. Who later left the game injured. Bringing in their 5th string corner.

Needless to say, the odds are stacked against him. He has Miles Austin and Dez Bryant ahead of him, so short of an injury, he will never see time as a top two receiver for the Cowboys this year.

BUT...

Damn he looked good.

We've seen it before. Victor Cruz comes to mind. Or the aforementioned Laurent Robinson. Every year someone pops up. Who am I to say that it will not be Kevin Ogletree?

So, simply, my advice is this. If you have someone droppable. Go for it.

If you are rocking four different receivers on your bench, go ahead. If you have a backup kicker or defense, shame on you, boot them. If you got stuck with an injured player or dud through an auto-draft, pick him up.

Its Week 1. And anything can happen. Welcome to fantasy football.


43 comments:

  1. Just a few questions this week. Two different leagues. One league I, as of now, have AJ Green at WR and DeShawn Jackson at Flex, with Marshawn Lynch and Isaac Redman on the bench. Im thinking Green and Jackson will be the best way to go, unless they release more info on Lynch. Thoughts?


    Second League.
    Ridley at RB, and Colston at W/R flex, with MJD, Redman, Tate, and Jackson on the bench. I need one RB, So I figure Ridley beats out all the above below Ray Rice, and then Colston beats out MJD and Jackson as the biggest two vying for his spot. Thoughts?

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  2. Looking forward to another season! You guys have helped me come back from shitty drafts the last couple of seasons. Finally had a good draft, so onto my question.


    Which WR for Flex in my PPR? J. Blackmon, Reggie Wayne, or Stevie Johnson? My two starting receivers are megatron and Brandon Marshall. Malcolm Floyd's also on the bench.


    Blackmon and wayne figure to get a lot of targets, Johnson has potential since he's beat Revis before but there's been all that crap in the news and he's still recovering from that groin injury. I'm leaning towards Blackmon due to the Vikes' secondary.


    Thanks as always!

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  3. Steve Johnson or Reggie Wayne? standard league

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  4. Who to start in my W/T spot?


    Mike Williams (TB)
    Kendall Wright
    Michael Floyd
    Alshon Jeffrey
    Greg Olson
    Steve Breaston
    Mario Manningham


    Line up right now


    QB - Cam Newton
    WR - Desean Jackson
    WR - Hakeem Nicks
    RB - Arian Foster
    TE - Jermichael Finley
    W/T - ?
    W/R - Steven Jackson

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  5. Hello again and Ty for your time! Rashad Jennings or d. Martin this week? Can the rookie get it done?

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  6. Chicken Milk StinkbombSeptember 7, 2012 at 4:45 PM

    Who to start at the flex position in a PPR League between Peyton Hillis and Steve Smith (Carolina).

    Steve Smith was shut down against Tampa Bay in 2011, will it be different in 2012.
    Peyton Hillis could have a split or Charles may just dominate and Hillis doesn't get on the field, your thoughts?

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  7. Chicken Milk StinkbombSeptember 7, 2012 at 5:09 PM

    I also just got Rashad Jennings from waiver wire, owner drop him on Wednesday, So I have Hillis, Jennings ans Smith to chose from, thoughts?

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  8. Hi Guys,

    Here is my lineup in my PPR league as it stands currently:

    QB Matthew Stafford
    RB Ray Rice
    RB Donald Brown
    WR Wes Welker
    WR Dez Bryant
    TE Fred Davis
    Flex Mike Wallace

    BN Ryan Mathews
    BN Peyton Manning
    BN Ben Tate
    BN Titus Young
    BN Alex Green
    BN Jacquizz Rodgers

    So I'm already calling out my boy who didn't pick up Ben Tate as handcuff to Arian Foster now that the game time decision news came out. I'm thinking definite start over Brown if Foster is a no go and possibly even if he is? Also everybody seems so down on Wallace this week but I think he is my best option unless I go Tate and Brown in flex. But this is a 1 point PPR league... anyway thoughts?

    As always, thanks for the advice!

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  9. Hi GHL.. good post on "Kevin Ogletree"... I was thinking to pick'em dropping J.Ford.. but I already have Dez and it doesn't make sense to have two Dallas receiver?


    Here is my team.. Please suggest my lineup for week 1..


    RB1-M.Lynch (or) R.Turbin? if Lynch is active.. is it safe to start him?
    RB2-D.Sproles(Return yardage league)
    WR1-D.Bryant (gave me 8.5 pts)
    WR2-Dwayne Bowe
    Flex(R/W/T) - S.Greene
    QB-J.Cutler
    TE-J.Finley
    DEF-Buffalo Bills
    K-Mike Nugent
    Bkup RB-R.Helu instead of Lynch this week?
    Bkup QB-C.Palmer
    Bkup WR-Davone Bess
    Bkup WR-Jacoby Ford
    Bkup TE-Kyle Rudolph
    Bkup RB-R.Turbin(Just an insurance for M.Lynch's back problem)



    please suggest your line up/comments..


    Also if I get a good pick during this week who should be the person I should target dropping?

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  10. Completely agree on your first league questions.

    Second league:
    I think I'd agree with this too. Of course, if any more news comes out about MJD's number of carries, that might change.

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  11. I have Wayne higher. Neither Wayne or Blackmon have a great quarterback, but both should be in line for some good catches.

    Blackmon's great preseason helps his cause. Its a gut call really. Blackmon has all the upside.

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  12. I've got them very close. I think I'd lean Wayne on this one. Just have a feeling that he'll have a great comeback year.

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  13. My first reaction would be Kendall Wright or actually Greg Olsen.

    Wright is starting and has had a good preseason, working primarily with Locker. And the matchup is great.
    Olsen is the only TE in Carolina now, and could see a good amount of looks.

    I'd probably take the gamble on Wright though.

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  14. I go Steve Smith on this. He started hot last year, and against Tampa, he could absolutely do it again.

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  15. Doesnt change anything. Still go with Smith.

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  16. I like yours how it is. Obviously with Tate if that situation plays out right.

    I'm among those down on Wallace. I just think that he gave Antonio Brown way too much time to step up and build report with Roethlisberger.

    I think you are set the way you are.

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  17. Calm down friend. You are definitely going to be an overthinker.

    Youre lineup is solid. I like where it is and I wouldnt change anything. Just keep an eye on the RB situation in Seattle. If Lynch is clear, then play him.

    If you did want to go for Ogletree, or anyone else for that matter, I would probably get rid of Ford (unless you have return yards and he is scoring for you there). In which case, I would probaly have to dump Rudolph.

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  18. So I am still beating myself up for not picking Darren McFadden instead of Jamaal Charles. I don't really know what happened. I should have used my back to back picks to get Jamaal Charles AND Darren McFadden and left Greg Jennings on the board. I can't get McFadden out of my head....but I digress. I find myself for the first time in my fantasy football history with no player on any injury report. I've never seen this before. Here are my players.


    QB - Aaron Rodgers
    RB- Jamaal Charles
    RB- Doug Martin
    RB/WR- Percy Harvin
    WR- Greg Jennings
    WR- Julio Jones
    TE- Jared Cook
    D/ST- Eagles
    K- Jason Hansen


    BENCH
    Darren Sproles
    Robert Meachem
    Titus Young
    Kevin Smith
    Nate Washington
    DHB
    Andrew Luck


    I am comfortable with my lineup, but the guy i'm playing had Romo who looked golden after the 1st quarter of that game. I work with him and it will be a long season indeed if he ends up winning this game. I like Washington's matchup as well as Meachem's to a point. Would you change anything based on the matchups or leave it as is like my gut is telling me to. Season long bragging rights are on the line here....


    Thanks in advance.

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  19. Another season, and I think I have a good team. What do you think for week one?
    I have 2 WR, 2 RB and a flex
    WR - Maclin, Thomas (den), Torrey Smith, Bess, Hester, and Britt
    RB - Richardson, Peterson, Benson, Dwyer
    I have Rodgers as my QB, Gresham as my TE, and Baltimore as my D.
    Which 5 players should I start at WR and RB, I am thinking Maclin, Thomas, Smith, Benson, and not sure who else. What do you think? Let's win a championship!

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  20. And this is a PPR league.

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  21. who should i start with in week one between those rb: M.Bush,B Tate,R Helu and should i drop any of them for M.Leshore. Thank God

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  22. Hey guys,


    I want to thank you all for all the help last year. I ended up getting second in my money league (2 years in a row). So hopefully this is my year to take first. I have two questions for you. I am in a 10-team standard scoring league and am trying to decide on the flex position this week.


    RBs- Foster, J. Charles
    WR - R. White, W. Welker
    RB/WR - ?
    Bench - J. Maclin, S. Greene, W. McGahee, CJ Spiller, B. Tate, Heyward-Bey


    I know that its between Maclin and Greene this week based on match-ups. I was leaning towards Maclin even though they will run most of game but then realized that the Bills allowed a ton of points to RBs last season. I am not a big fan of Greene especially since Tebow is in town. What are your thoughts?


    Question 2 - What do you think of a trade that gets me R. Matthews and I give up Greene and McGahee? It hurts my depth at running back for the first few weeks but if Matthews can stay healthy, it would be a strong trio between him, Foster and Charles. McGahee is the one who scares me though because it is hard to say how he will do with Peyton as his QB.


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  23. Week 1, I tend to always go with those who I know. I do love Nate Washington this week. It really is a great matchup to play him.. But all of your starting WRs are much more predictable and solid to get you good points.

    I'd stick the way you have. Its the smartest way to roll, I think.

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  24. If its not a return yardage league, then its a joke to have Devin Hester. First of all.

    You have your WRs and flex figured out. I agree with them. Richardson and Benson at RB would be my go-to.
    If the Vikings say that Peterson will play and play often, then put him in instead of Richardson.

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  25. Tate. With Foster either out or limited, he should see some good carries.

    I'm generally scared of Redskin running backs, and I would like to see how many touches Bush gets before risking it.

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  26. Doug Martin over Kevin Smith? Thaaanks god.

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  27. 1- I go Maclin. Buffalo has drastically changed their defense. And Greene isn't exactly a picture of consistency.

    2- I do think that getting Matthews would be nice. I dont think its that big of a price. And with the flex spot you have, you dont have to worry much about depth. When one of them has the bye week, just throw Maclin in there.

    I like it.

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  28. Carolina was miserable against RBs last year. I say go with Martin for sure. Smith could very well have a great game.. but Martin is more of a sure thing

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  29. As always, thanks for the advice.

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  30. Its what I'm here for. Thanks for asking.

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  31. Hi GHL- Does it make sense to trade Megatron and Wells for MJD and Vincent Jackson? Thanks for the help over the past two years.

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  32. Yikes. This one is pretty difficult. MJD... much better than Wells (who I think will lose his job before the end of the year). Megatron is miles above everybody. (and TB had less than 150 passing yards today, not promising)

    I don't think I would go for it. But I would suggest you get a second (and third and fourth and possibly fifth) opinion. This one is too close to call for me.

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  33. Any recommendations for a floating defense for Week 2? I am in an 8 team league so there are plenty defenses available. Cowboys, Bills, Pats, Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers, Vikings? Thanks for your wisdom.

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  34. Had a bad week 1.. Buf.Bills & Nugent way way under performed in my team :( lost by 2 points.. I have few questions to you, My waiver priority is "1" in my league and it is continual rolling list for the season NOT a week on week waiver..


    Someone dropped M.Crosby(GB-K) and is he worth a waiver 1 pick? by doing this I will have to wait for other 16 team members to use their waivers throughout the season to get back the priority.


    I grabbed A.Jeffrey from FA, I liked him more compared to S.Hill..


    Also I.Redman is available in the FA is his worth a pick in place of R.Turbin (Lynch back is fine I guess..)


    Thanks..

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  35. One more questions:


    Do you think I should still go with Buffalo Def for week 2 or switch to Dallas in place of them or a bench roster?

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  36. DEF ranks just posted.

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  37. For now, Redman is better than Turbin. But once Mendy is back, that is pretty much off the table.

    I wouldnt waste a waiver wire pick on a Kicker. But replacing Nugent might be a good call if you can.

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  38. I'd switch. Buffalo was a huge let-down. Dallas could be a good call this week. SDS is the way to go.

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  39. Just picked J.Tucker for now.. :)

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  40. Dallas is gone :( Do you think Washington is better than Buffalo Bills?

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  41. Dallas is gone:( Do you think Washington is better than Buffalo Bills this week?

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  42. I mean I have to drop Buffalo in that case because I do not have much bench place to have two defense.


    By the way I had J.Cutler & J.Finley who has worst night of their life I guess :(

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  43. That was an awful game. Bad luck.

    I do like Washington more this week.

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