Thursday, July 28, 2011

Q&A: Tight Ends, Kickers, Defense

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In the next few days, we will be finishing our preliminary Q&A sections and once the free agency mess dies down, we will move onto the all important Player Rankings and even give you a rundown of how all the cuts, moves and signings have affected your fantasy football team.

TIGHT END Q&A
1) Top three tight ends?
Andrew: Antonio Gates, number one, again. In a season without injury you can count on him to lead all tight ends in yards and TDs.
I'm keeping Witten and number two. He is talked about a lot, but I feel that he is constantly undervalued in fantasy, especially in PPR leagues. Over 90 receptions in three of the past 4 years, he is as consistent as they come and seemingly impervious to injury.
Three is close. The safe pick is Dallas Clark, he's coming of injury though and Tamme won't slide to second string without a fight. Finley is another argument, but didn't start out very strong last year before his injury, with losses at WR though, he could see more action. For now though, I'm sticking with Clark as the third best.
Jordan: Is this a real question? I guess. I'm going to switch up Andrew's order just a tad: Gates should be everyone's first, last, and only TE. If you can't grab him, go with Vernon Davis. He has the most upside of any of the elite TEs this year, but also the most doubt. I'd still bet on hm though. Last, but not least, go with Jason Witten. He's productive and dependable year-in and year-out. You can't go wrong on him.

2) Biggest sleeper? Willing to wait to take a tight end in round 8 or later?
Andrew: If you are a gambler and want to wait til very late to take a tight end, I think the Jared Cook from the Titans could be the way to go. He got the majority of his work after Thanksgiving in 2010, and was going at a decent clip. If Kellen Winslow or Cooley fall to you though, they are less of a gamble.
Jordan: I'm going to say Greg Olsen for the Carolina Panthers. Who's a rookie QB's best friend? His TE. Olsen could put up very, very good numbers for what will be, undoubtedly, a very mediocre team.

KICKER Q&A
3) Most productive kicker?
Andrew: Picking a kicker, you have to take into account a couple things, field goal percentage over quantity (if you league deducts for missed kicks), extra points (they add up), and weather. All things accounted for, I like Neil Rackers. He kicked .900 last season, Houston finds the end zone a lot, and home games in Texas.
Jordan: I really could care less about kickers-- even more than Andrew. I will usually pick up and drop my kickers no less than 5 times in a season. Pick your kicker with your absolute last pick. Seriously. Go with the team that scores the most points and the guy that was most accurate from the past season. But drop him. Seriously. Because, at the end of the day, there is always going to be a newer, hotter offense and a newer, hotter kicker. These guys are streaky as hell, so don't be the farm on anyone. Go with Rackers.

4) Which K will you be staying away from?
Andrew: If your league deducts for misses, I have to sell Dan Carpenter, shooting just .732 last season. Beyond that, big names to pass on are Scobee, Gould and Folk.
Jordan: Adam Matthew Vinatieri. Yeah, he's the must clutch kicker in the history of the NFL playoffs, but unless you have a crazy ass league, you won't be playing during the playoffs. Savvy? His regular season numbers are consistent, but he's not a lights-out guy. Just good. And usually way, way over-drafted-- sometimes as early as the 15th or 16th rounds. Dumb.

5) What is the best time to take a K?
Andrew: The very damn end. Last 2 picks. All in all, pretty much any of the top kickers are going to end up close to each other. Number 1 kicker last year (not counting missed kicks) had 150 points. Number 15 kicker had 115. Save your kicker for last, establish a bench first.
Jordan: Dead last. Period. They're worse than defenses, damn it.

DEFENSE Q&A
6) Which fantasy defense will be the best?
Andrew: The usual suspects lead the defensive numbers. My pick is the Packers. They are pretty deep, managed to win a Super Bowl despite tons of injuries, and have an insane ability to score defensive TDs and create turnovers. They are the most balanced and consistent pick for me.
Jordan: I'm a big fan of drafting New England this year, especially if your league gives points for the offense line that weighs the most. They're consistently good and just added Haynesworth, which *could* make them even better. Or, if you like ultimately safe picks, go with Pittsburgh. Seriously.

7) Which improved the most from last year?
Andrew: The Buccaneers did some big things for me in the NFL draft. They spent their first 3 picks all updating the defense. Though their corner, Talib, is likely out of the picture, they could have some trouble against the pass, but I expect their sack totals from last year (26) to go up drastically and to see more turnovers than they managed in 2010 (28).
Jordan: I agree with Andrew on this one. They're getting younger without sacrificing too much too soon. They have rebuilt their defense progressively-- not all-at-once, like some teams do. They have a great ability to gauge when a defensive player starts to slip.

8) Who will go from good to awful?
Andrew: Unless they make big moves to keep their defensive stars, the Titans could be in a lot of trouble. The Falcons defense put up decent numbers last year, and didn't have a great defensive draft, so they could fall as well.
Jordan: The New York Jets won't be exactly awful, but with the amount of expectations that fantasy managers have been putting on them over the last few seasons, a lot of people are going to be disappointed. They can't keep the magical run magical for much longer. I project them to fall about 8 spots in the overall fantasy rankings by year's end.


Come back tomorrow, when we give a Q&A for individual defensive positions. Breaking down Defensive Line, Linebacker and Defensive Backs.

As always, if you have any questions for us, post them in the comments. Every question gets an answer.

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3 comments:

  1. Hey guys,
    I just read your "10 ten mistakes" over on bleacher report and like what I see so far. I won a league in 2006 and haven't really played since, yet hope to get back into shape for this season. I have two quick questions that I need some help on: (1) My commissioner insists on making defenses "relevant", thus, has assigned 30 pts for shutouts, 25 points for 1-6 points allowed, 20 points for 7-13 points allowed, and so on. Thus, should this affect how I go about my draft? If so, how should I factor this in? also, (2) Our points system gives 0.1 PPR and -.5 for incomplete passes: How should this be factored on draft day?
    Anyway, thanks a lot for your time and I hope to hear from you guys shortly!

    ReplyDelete
  2. @Anonymous With points that high, then I say yes, it will affect how you draft. The main reason I say that you can save defenses til the end of a draft is because the point differential between the first place defense and say the 15th place defense is so slim.
    However, when points like that are given for 'points allowed' it makes more sense to go out for a shutdown defense a little bit earlier. However, I also have a defensive strategy where I pick up a defense off waivers based on who they are playing against. This could be a good strategy to use with the way your league is set up. You can read about the defensive strategy here... http://bleacherreport.com/articles/516519-matchups-vs-turnovers-how-to-make-your-own-fantasy-football-defense-rankings

    As for your second question, it should also affect your draft style. The PPR leagues I play in usually give .5 points per catch. Last year, Andre Johnson had 86 catches, in my league that would be 43 extra points, but in your league, it would only amount to 8.6 points. So I'd recommend drafting WRs based on yardage and TDs as the PPR won't be an astronomical figure to consider.
    Incomplete passes, I don't really see being a huge deal either. It can jostle your rankings around a little bit, for instance Drew Brees completed 68.2% of his passes, while Vick completed 62%. With your elite QBs they will all have over 60%. I think that -.5 is too much to deduct, but it evens out if you get .5 points per completion as well.

    Hope this all helped. I know I typed a lot. Let me know if you need anything more cleared up. During the year, we will be giving weekly rankings of all players, so stay tuned for that, as it won't really be much different for the style of your league.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hey guys,
    I just read your "10 ten mistakes" over on bleacher report and like what I see so far. I won a league in 2006 and haven't really played since, yet hope to get back into shape for this season. I have two quick questions that I need some help on: (1) My commissioner insists on making defenses "relevant", thus, has assigned 30 pts for shutouts, 25 points for 1-6 points allowed, 20 points for 7-13 points allowed, and so on. Thus, should this affect how I go about my draft? If so, how should I factor this in? also, (2) Our points system gives 0.1 PPR and -.5 for incomplete passes: How should this be factored on draft day?
    Anyway, thanks a lot for your time and I hope to hear from you guys shortly!

    ReplyDelete