Thursday, July 5, 2012

2012 Quarterback Rankings

Ah, first post of the season. Let's take a look at where the quarterbacks are falling. Here's my big list. With some pretty genius commentary, I might add.

  1. Aaron Rodgers – I'd imagine that this is number one on everyone's board. You'll see him go in the 1st round of your draft, no doubt about it. He's coming off possibly the greatest quarterback season in NFL history, which is saying something when you consider that a different QB broke Marino's yardage record this year. Still no running game in Green Bay, so expect nearly identical firepower as last year.
  2. Tom Brady – Everyone talked about Rodgers, Brees, Stafford and Newton last year. Meanwhile, Brady's owner sat coolly as Brady had his best fantasy season since 2007. More passing yards than Rodgers, fewer INTs and more yards per attempt than Brees. McDaniels is back in New England for the first time since Brady's 50-touchdown season. His receiving crew got even more bang with the addition of Brandon Lloyd and the Pats have the easiest schedule in the NFL. Only downside is that the run game might improve... but we seem to say that every year. You might have to nab him in the first the way that early ADPs are looking, but I say he's worth it.
  3. Drew Brees – Doubt this holdout thing goes on for much longer. You can tell that Brees just loves playing the game. Last year's leader in passing touchdowns, completions and yardage, a ridiculous 342 yards per game. Doubt we see the numbers again, but he's still got three 80-reception receivers on his team in Colston, Graham and Sproles. Worthy of a first round pick, but he may just slide to you in the second.
  4. Matthew Stafford – I still count his health as a BIG if. But last year he managed to stay healthy and pretty much killed it. 41 touchdowns, over 5,000 yards. And he's still got whats-his-face out there at receiver. You know the guy I'm talking about. Mega- something or other. He'll probably be taken higher than he should, but he is a young guy that can be a top performer if healthy all season.
  5. Michael Vick – Remember that one time when people were taking him number one overall? Ha. That was cute. At the end of the year, Vick will fare much better than he did in the 2011 season, even if he misses a couple games again. The Eagle's got hot late in the year and that momentum should easily carry over. They made a great defense even scarier and that will help Vick out on the other side of the ball. He has a lot of weapons and I will guarantee that he finds the end zone running more than once this year.
  6. Cam Newton – Newton falls to number six. I'm pretty positive that I might be the only person to have him this low, but that's what I do. And I'll tell you why. 1) He's going to be taken far too early in your draft, someone will reach on him in the first or early second. 2) I said it about Vick last year, and I'll say it again about Newton here: No quarterback has ever rushed for six or more TDs in one season and repeated the next. Newton will likely break that streak, but he will not see the end zone 14 times. 3) Sophomore slump. It happens. He's got tons of endorsement and more eyes on him than ever. And teams are working to figure him out. I wouldn't take him as early as he has been going in mocks, you shouldn't either.
  7. Tony Romo – Romo is pretty much my fantasy darling year in and year out. Passed for 4,000 yards and 31 touchdowns last year without even having a number 1 receiver. And you can get him in round 5. He is the best QB fit with my strategy which is going after RB and WR early and grabbing a QB in round 5 or later. He won't match the numbers of Rodgers or Brees, but he will finish in the top 8 every week and you'll have your skill positions scoring more points than your opponents. And we all know that Dez Bryant is due for a breakout.
  8. Jay Cutler – I've got him higher than I should. But I like him this year. Stats last year were pretty lame, but so were his receivers. This season he is back with Brandon Marshall who has a few 100-catch seasons left in him. If Forte can return to form, and another receiver or tight end can step up, we could potentially see Cutler return to Denver Bronco-style numbers.
  9. Eli Manning – Too hot and cold for me to have any higher than this. Coming off the Super Bowl win and MVP title, he will likely go higher than he should. Couple that with the hardest schedule in the NFL and it could be a problem. But last year he had more than 340 yards in six different games. He still have plenty of weapons and you know that the Giants are going to throw the ball an absurd amount of times. Stat line should be near identical to last season.
  10. Matt Schaub – Schedule is a piece of cake. Best running back and backup RB in the NFL. Andre Johnson is going to be a key factor here, if he can stay healthy this season, Schaub can be elite. If not, we could see similar disappointing stats to last year. Hopefully a WR2 can step up this season to have his back.
  11. Philip Rivers – Rivers was plagued by interceptions last season. He had a good touchdown record and great yardage numbers, but the picks really hurt his value. With a great pass-catching running back, the hopeful return of Antonio Gates and the acquisition of Meachem and Royal, we hope to see Rivers bounce back in fantasy value this year.
  12. Ben Roethlisberger – I'm usually down on Big Ben in fantasy football, but I like his situation this year. Steelers have slowly become a passing team and his numbers have been up. The offseason has been rough, but I think that he can get past it all. I like a big season for his tight end and both of his receivers. He is also going very late in mocks. Meaning that you can gamble and wait til the 8th round to pull the trigger on a QB and still land a possible top 7 passer.
  13. Matt Ryan – We're all waiting for him to have his big fantasy year. Last year with White still at a peak, Tony Gonzalez blowing up and the incoming talent of Julio Jones, we all thought we'd see him shine in 2011. We did see career high yardage and touchdowns and I feel that it can only go up from here. He's going in the early 7th and could be a nice play. 

    Beyond this point... I wouldn't really want to name any of the quarterbacks as my starter. Too many question marks for my taste. If you want a solid QB1, you're going to want to pick from the 13 mentioned above.
  14. Peyton Manning – I'm going to pass on him. Right off the bat. He is going far to early and I just don't trust his health. He's got some great young talent around him, but risk/reward isn't working for me. Add that he is no longer playing indoors, I'll say he's on his way out.
  15. Andy Dalton – Jermaine Gresham is going to have to step it up. Dalton's number 2 and 3 receivers have both left. He's got the breakout talent of A.J. Green, but not much else to work with. Could see better stats than last year, but nothing to write home about.
  16. Robert Griffin III – Another QB who is going to go higher than he should. I've got a ton of question marks surrounding him. Will he put up numbers like Cam Newton... doubt it. But he can still end the year in the top half of quarterbacks.
  17. Carson Palmer – The situation is interesting. No big name receivers, but a lot of capable ones. Great running back behind him. He could either completely flop or push 4,000 yards. I'll put him on my bench in deep leagues, but beyond that, I'm not feeling it.
  18. Josh Freeman – New offensive coordinator, new head coach, new number one receiver, new tight end. These aren't the same Buccaneers that we saw last season. Freeman had decent numbers last year, but the touchdowns were low and the interceptions were high. I expect those numbers to flip this year and he could be on his way to cracking the top 15. If I were to gamble with any QB ranked below number 15, it would be Freeman.
  19. Alex Smith – What to do with this guy? Great success as a team, but didn't translate at all to fantasy. Barely broke 3,000 yards and only put up 17 scores. He's going to have to push it to get any real fantasy value. Manningham and Moss will definitely help though. He smells an awful lot like a sleeper candidate.
  20. Joe Flacco – This is me basically giving up on Flacco as far as fantasy football is concerned. He has matured into a great quarterback, a true leader, but the stats just aren't there for me to want him to start week after week on a fantasy level. Expect 3,500 yards and 20-25 scores. He's solid no doubt, and has weapons, but he's not going to wow anybody.
  21. Ryan Fitzpatrick – Definitely starting to get into backup quarterback territory. Started hot last year before a string of injuries to his supporting cast. I could easily have put him between 15 and 18 on this list, but this area is very muddled. He makes bad choices still and his picks will be high, but I like his yardage and touchdown probability much more than say RGIII, Palmer or Smith.
  22. Jake Locker – Seems to be a 50-50 shot that he'll start the first game, but I'm willing to sell the farm that he will end the season under center. He's got great receiving talent behind him, and Chris Johnson is prime for a comeback.
  23. Matt Flynn – A gamble I'm not willing to take. Let another team get sucked in by his Week 17 performance last season.
  24. Christian Ponder – Definite sleeper, still has a couple years before he gets up there though. New receivers to help him out and Matt Kalil protecting him ensures a better season than last year.

Outside of deep leagues, the rest of these guys are hardly likely to be drafted. Leave them in free agency.

  1. Sam Bradford – No way he can be as bad as last year. He could match his rookie season numbers, but that is a stretch.
  2. Andrew Luck – Colts still have a few years of being bad. Not enough skill players, might flirt with 3,000 yards, but the INTs will likely be uncomfortably close to TDs.
  3. Matt Cassel – A lot of no huddle, which is what we saw him working with in New England when he was borderline impressive.
  4. Kevin Kolb – He's got immense WR talent, but I don't think he has what it takes to make the most of it. And the fact that he can't play a whole season doesn't help.
  5. Mark Sanchez – Too much drama for me to touch. Jets should stay pretty run-heavy, and Tebow can step in at any moment.
  6. Brandon Weeden – He should start from the beginning. I expect comparisons to Andy Dalton early, but he won't live up to it. Not enough talent around him.
  7. Matt Moore – I think he'll start, but the Dolphins won't perform well enough for him to stick around all year.
  8. Tim Tebow – Should steal a few stats. I'm sure Jets fans will be chanting his name just like the Broncos were last year. If named the starter, he could make your bench.
  9. Blaine Gabbert – Will blow last season's numbers out of the water. Too bad those numbers aren't even borderline impressive. New wideouts will help, not enough though.
  10. Matt Hasselbeck – Only if he is named the starter, even then, don't think he'll last.
  11. Shaun Hill – Getting into back up territory. Deep league handcuff in case Stafford falls into an injury slump again.
  12. Kyle Orton – The best backup in the NFL.
  13. Ryan Tannehill – If Moore fails, he'll start. But the Dolphins roster really only rivals teams in the Big Sky Conference. Start him if Miami ever faces Idaho State, beyond that, no.
  14. Chad Henne – Just here to teach you that he plays for the Jaguars. Move along.
  15. Graham Harrell – Aaron Rodger's backup. He'll be taking over the best offense in the NFL.
  16. John Skelton – I think I'm going to stop now. Enough is enough.


  1. Happy to be back! Working on the skill positions now. Hoping to have everything up by the end of the weekend. Help me spread the word that GHL is back!

  2. Welcome back! Its good to see you back.
    I'm Getting Matthew Stafford in the 4th round because of the keeper rules. I am stoked to see what he can do this year.

  3. Damn! It's great to see ya'll back online. I have to make up for my shitty year last year so I've been visiting everyday for about a week now, knowing it was about that time. Look forward to spending another season reading ya'lls expert opinions and advice. Keep up the good work guys!

  4. Nice. Great value for him. He's in the top five quarterbacks being taken. He'll have another big year as long as he can stay on the field.

  5. Happy to have you back. Until the season starts, I'm taking my time writing some strategy stuff. If you've got ideas about anything you would like to see. Just let me know and I'll get to work on it!

  6. For a league that scores accordingly-
    Completions-0.5 Pts
    Passing Yards-25 yards per point
    Passing TD's-4 Pts
    Interceptions- (-2) Pts
    Rushing Yards-5 yards per point
    Rushing TD's-6 Pts
    Receptions-1 Pt
    Reception Yards-10 yards per point
    Reception touchdowns-6 pts
    In our league we can deal our picks around prior to the draft and I've landed picks 3 and 4. The two owners in front of me have said they're going to go Foster/McCoy. At 3/4 I've been looking at McCoy/Rodgers/Newton/Brady/Brees. Out of that group which two would you go with? Also anyone I'm seriously overlooking there?

  7. If you were in the same league last year, you should be able to use last years numbers to see what positions scored the highest. Based on these numbers, I have to imagine that RB was the most important position. And I bet there was a bigger gap between elite RBs and lower RBs than there was between elite QBs and lower QBs.

    Based on that assumpion, I would probably use that position to fill up both of my RB slots. If the top two take Foster/McCoy, then I would go with any combination of Rice/MJD/Chris Johnson/Mathews.

    I think that you could wait til a later pick and still get good quarterback points from someone like Romo, Schaub, E. Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, or even Cutler because of that points per completion number.

    If you are deadset on getting that QB in the first round though, I'd make it Ray Rice and Aaron Rodgers.

  8. Much thanks! Yup I was in the league last year with the same scoring, and came to pretty much the same conclusion as you was just looking for a secondary opinion on it. I'm looking to definitely take one running back and then between now and the draft I'll be wavering from another RB to Rodgers.

  9. I am drafting no. 8 out of 10 in a snake draft. Aside from pick up the best if they should fall to me, what kind of draft order should I draft in.

    Such as: RB RB QB TE.... etc.


  10. Wrote my newest post just for you.