Fantasy Football Draft Strategy – Where to Pick Each
Position
The question that I seem to get asked the most about the
fantasy football draft is the most complex one to answer:
“In what order should I draft?”
“When do I get my running backs, when do I get my
receivers?”
“Help me with my fantasy football draft order!”
It’s not an easy answer. There are many schools of thought,
and each year it seems to be getting more and more difficult. Two years ago,
I’d have slapped you for taking a tight end any higher than the fifth round.
And now we have these two guys, Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski, who are both
making solid cases for being picked up in the early second.
So, I guess my first and easiest response to this question
would have to be “Pre-Plan.” Make your list, try a couple of mock drafts
(available on any fantasy football site, ESPN’s are generally very good), star
your sleepers and any players that you really want.
(This is pretty in-depth… for a “Long Story, Short” version,
scroll to the bottom)
Personally, I have completed this step. I know my
“must-haves”, I’ve run my mocks, I’ve
made my list. And this is what I’ve come up with. Here is a
position-by-position breakdown of my perfect draft order strategy.
Quarterback-
Make a top three list. A list of the quarterbacks that you
want for your team. Usually, I will pick two guys who I view are starting
potential, and one or two more “emergency backups” just in case my first two
picks go off the board and I’m not able to get them.
If you like Tom Brady or Matthew Stafford and know you want
him, find out his average draft position, and plan to select him in that round.
And, in the scenario where you somehow miss out on them, you can still rely on
your backups.
Jay Cutler is a great sleeper, Ben Roethlisberger is
improving in fantasy points every year, Carson Palmer could very well return to
form.
Just know that there are starting-caliber quarterbacks
outside of the first six rounds. If you don’t get one of the top eight guys,
don’t panic. There is always a QB or two that will stand out and you can get in
the later rounds.
As for having a backup quarterback on your roster… I think
it is a must in leagues that have 12 or more teams. 8- or 10-team leagues, I
really don’t think that it is necessary. There will be decent quarterback
options in free agency for your bye week, or in the case that your starter gets
hurt. In those smaller leagues, I think it is more important to fill your bench
with sleeper candidates at RB and WR than waste one space with a backup
quarterback.
Running Back-
We’ve seen the trend happening in fantasy football for the
past few years. Elite, true number one running backs are getting rarer and
rarer. Nearly every team in the NFL is running a multiple-back system, leaving
less room for running backs to have phenomenal seasons.
This is why it is pivotal to get your running backs early. Nearly
every year I get both of my starting running backs in the first two rounds.
That’s just how you need to do it. Those owners who opt for Aaron Rodgers or
Calvin Johnson in the first round are getting an elite player, but they are
going to take a serious hit when it comes to their starting running backs.
From where I’m standing, there are really only six real elite
running backs that don’t have a backup that they are sharing a lot of playing
time with: Arian Foster, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren
McFadden and Chris Johnson.
There are other great running backs, (Matt Forte, Jamaal
Charles, DeMarco Murray), but they all have second string running backs that
are likely going to split time with them. This limits their touches.
Following this group of second tier players, there is an
even sharper drop off outside of the top 20. If you don’t get one of those Top
20 running backs, then you will be starting an NFL backup or time-sharer every
week. This is generally a no-no.
So, when it comes to running backs, get them early and
often. By the end of the sixth round, you should have three: your two starters
and one decent backup.
Wide Receiver-
Hopefully the quarterback and running back rundown didn’t
scare you too much. With all the pressure of your QB being selected before you
get a chance, and the stress of getting two high starting RBs, things can get a
little messy.
Good new, the wide receiver position seems ridiculous this
season. I have listed my top
50 wide receivers, and in 10 and 12 team leagues, I honestly think that I’d
be confident with 85% of them in my starting lineup each week.
The receiver position is incredibly deep this year. Of
course, like all other positions, you have tiers. But, don’t be in such a
massive hurry to fill this position as compared to the others.
Now, where to start getting your receivers depend on the
original strategy that you outlined. If the quarterback that you have your eye
on is usually going in round three, then take him there and take your first receiver
in round four.
In the case that running backs are going very heavy in your
draft, you could even take an RB in the fourth round and wait until round five
to take your first receiver. It’s just that deep.
Because there are so many NFL receivers to choose from, if
you plan it right, you can usually guarantee that you will get any sleeper
receiver that you want. Lots of experts are very high on Titus Young. He is
currently the 33rd receiver being taken in drafts and falling in the
end of Round 9. If you want him, push him up your list! Its that easy. Take him
in round 8 and you are guaranteed to have the player you want.
Like Randy Moss, take him in round 9. Stevie Johnson, round
6. I can tell you right now that there is one “must-have” wide receiver on my
list, and I will promise you right now that I am going to move up a round and
make sure I grab him.
As far as your bench goes. I like most of my bench spots to
belong to receivers. I’ll keep two running backs, and generally fill the rest
of the spots with receivers. That way I have insurance if any of my starting
WRs go down. And receivers are far more likely to have breakout years. A random
number 3 receiver could easily become a big name, just look at Victor Cruz or
Laurent Robinson.
So, when you are making your list, make the receiver list
deep. Put a lot of names on there. You’ll be rewarded. This is where you are
going to get your great sleepers and make your fantasy season successful.
Tight End-
This position has gotten messy. It used to be that a middle
round was essentially dedicated to tight end. As soon as somebody took a tight
end in round six, then everyone would take a tight end. Simple.
Not so much anymore. There are very defined tiers. And
luckily, all of these tiers have players that have potential to put up great
points. The top 15 tight ends are all great players and all start-worthy. So
you don’t have to stress too much.
Since we have defined the other positions, we can do a bit
of an “if, then” exercise for the tight end position.
If you want a top tier quarterback in round three or above…
Then don’t worry about tight end until later. You can get your RBs first, then
your top QB, fill a couple WR spots, get a back up RB, and then snag someone
like Jason Witten or Fred Davis in round eight. Voila, you’ve got a great team.
If you have decided that you are happy taking a small risk
and getting a quarterback like Philip Rivers in round 8 or Jay Cutler in round
10 and using them as a starter… Then you can afford to take a tight end early.
You have the option of taking your RBs first, then a receiver and backup RB,
then use a mid round TE like Antonio Gates or Aaron Hernandez in Round 5 or 6.
If you have your heart set on Jimmy Graham or Rob
Gronkowski, then you are settling for a bit more of a risk at the other
positions, but it is still doable. Running back first, tight end second.
Running back third and then fill at your leisure.
Defense-
I use my Shuffling
Defense Strategy. I suggest that you do too. It works. I promise.
But, if your heart is set on having the 49ers or the
Steelers or what have you: then pull the trigger. I would do it no higher than
round 10. Make sure you have your starters all in play before moving on to your
defense.
Kicker-
Last. No arguments. Do not jump if other teams start taking
kickers early. At the end of the year, the difference between the best kicker
and the 15th best kicker is minimal. They should always be your last
round pick.
Long Story, Short-
I normally stick to the same outline, or some very similar
variation of it…
RB. RB. WR.
WR. RB. QB.
WR. TE. … Then Backups… Then Defense and Kicker last.
If I have my eye on a QB or TE, I will adjust accordingly.
I will reiterate… Do a mock draft. One to help form your
strategy. Then one to practice your strategy. It will do wonders once it is
time for your actual draft.
